Flour Market - U.S. Flour Market Will Continue to Be Driven by Expansion of Downstream Industries

Grain Mill Products July 01, 2016
Author: Irina Andreeva
Market Analyst

flour market

Photo: © Y_Gayvoronskaya / Bigstockphoto

From 2008 to 2015, the U.S. flour market showed mixed dynamics. A significant increase in 2011 was followed by a gradual decline over the next five years. According to our estimates, the U.S. flour market dropped to 14.78 million USD in 2015.

U.S. growth in flour consumption is expected to slow to +2.3% (currently +2.6%, based on USD) in the medium term. The market will continue to be mainly driven by the expansion of downstream industries, while per capita consumption of households should remain relatively stable.

Downstream industries, including bread, cookie, cracker, tortilla, and pasta production, have experienced a rebound from their recessionary slumps, boosting demand for flour over the past years. From 2008 to 2015, all these industries posted solid growth in production. The growth rate of tortilla manufacturing was especially fast (+6.0% per year). It was followed by dry pasta, dough, and flour mixes manufacturing (+4.3% per year), commercial bakery (+2.8% per year), frozen cakes, pies, and other pastries manufacturing (+2.0% per year), and cookie and cracker manufacturing (+0.8%).

In 2011, U.S. flour manufacturers outperformed the pre-recession production level after a slight decline in 2008-2010. Over the next few years, domestic producers suffered from a downward trend. In 2015, the value of shipments in the industry was estimated at 15,196 million USD.

Due to low trade intensity, imports and exports should not be regarded as strong factors influencing U.S. market dynamics in the medium term.

Canada and China were the main suppliers of flour into the U.S., with a combined 76% share of total U.S. imports in 2015. The fastest growing supplier from 2007 to 2015 was China (+79.8% per year). China significantly strengthened its position in the U.S. import structure, from 0% in 2007 to 24% in 2015. By contrast, Canada saw its share reduced to 20%.

In 2015, the main markets for U.S. flour exports were China (37%), Canada (20%), and Mexico (14%). The share exported to China increased (+37 percentage points), while the share sent to Mexico illustrated negative dynamics (-49 percentage points). The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

Net U.S. exports of flour showed a negative trend before 2012. Over the next two years, the trade surplus posted solid gains. However, in 2015 the active trade balance dropped to 408 million USD, approximately 33% of gross exports.

 U.S. Flour Exports

Do you want to know more about the U.S. flour market? Get the latest trends and insight from our report. It includes a wide range of statistics on

  • flour market share
  • flour prices
  • flour industry
  • flour sales
  • flour market forecast
  • flour price forecast
  • key flour producers

Source: U.S. Flour Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2020