Bus Market

The article provides detailed insights into the global market for public-transport passenger motor vehicles, projecting a positive consumption trend with an expected CAGR of +3.3% from 2022 to 2030. The market is forecasted to reach 811K units in volume and $121.1B in value by 2030. Consumption in 2022 saw a sharp decline, but overall recorded growth from 2012 to 2022. Key consuming countries include China, Turkey, and the United States. Production, imports, and exports also experienced fluctuations, with notable growth in some countries such as Belgium and Ecuador. The article highlights trends in per capita consumption, production volumes, import and export prices, and performance of major importing and exporting countries in the global market for public-transport passenger motor vehicles.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for public-transport passenger motor vehicles worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 811K units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $121.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Public-Transport Passenger Motor Vehicles

In 2022, global bus consumption contracted sharply to 626K units, declining by -24% on the previous year's figure. In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 823K units, and then shrank rapidly in the following year.

The global bus market size contracted remarkably to $76.8B in 2022, declining by -27.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded perceptible growth. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $105.9B, and then shrank significantly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (111K units), Turkey (67K units) and the United States (56K units), with a combined 37% share of global consumption. Russia, Ecuador, Japan, Indonesia, Canada, Germany, India, South Korea, Belgium and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Belgium (with a CAGR of +18.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Turkey ($31.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($11.7B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Turkey stood at +15.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: China (+1.1% per year) and the United States (+1.2% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of bus per capita consumption was registered in Ecuador (2,127 units per million persons), followed by Belgium (967 units per million persons), Turkey (787 units per million persons) and Canada (440 units per million persons), while the world average per capita consumption of bus was estimated at 80 units per million persons.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the bus per capita consumption in Ecuador amounted to +12.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Belgium (+17.8% per year) and Turkey (+4.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Public-Transport Passenger Motor Vehicles

In 2022, the amount of public-transport passenger motor vehicles produced worldwide fell rapidly to 633K units, waning by -22.1% compared with the previous year's figure. Overall, the total production indicated modest growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +28.2% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 29%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 812K units, and then shrank notably in the following year.

In value terms, bus production contracted to $87.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, enjoyed a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 28% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $89.6B in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (156K units), Turkey (82K units) and the United States (65K units), with a combined 48% share of global production. Japan, Russia, Ecuador, South Korea, Indonesia, Canada, Germany, India, Belgium and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Ecuador (with a CAGR of +14.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Public-Transport Passenger Motor Vehicles

In 2022, global imports of public-transport passenger motor vehicles expanded to 186K units, growing by 2% compared with 2021 figures. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a noticeable reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 12%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 278K units in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, bus imports rose significantly to $14.2B in 2022. In general, imports, however, showed a slight downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $19.2B. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Spain (8.1K units), Italy (7.7K units), Chile (7.6K units), the Netherlands (7.5K units), France (7.4K units), Germany (6.2K units), Russia (6.1K units), Belgium (6K units), Thailand (5.7K units), Canada (5.6K units), the United Arab Emirates (4.7K units) and Denmark (3.9K units) was the major importer of public-transport passenger motor vehicles in the world, making up 41% of total import. Qatar (3.9K units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +29.5%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest bus importing markets worldwide were France ($929M), Germany ($927M) and Italy ($716M), with a combined 18% share of global imports. Chile, Spain, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Denmark, Russia and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Spain, with a CAGR of +25.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average bus import price amounted to $76,351 per unit, surging by 5.5% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 9.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $82,001 per unit in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($148,573 per unit), while Russia ($31,403 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Qatar (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Public-Transport Passenger Motor Vehicles

In 2022, global bus exports expanded remarkably to 193K units, growing by 13% against 2021 figures. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a mild shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 17% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 232K units. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, bus exports expanded sharply to $13.9B in 2022. In general, exports, however, showed a slight shrinkage. The global exports peaked at $18.3B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (46K units), distantly followed by Japan (24K units), Turkey (15K units), the United States (12K units) and South Korea (10K units) represented the key exporters of public-transport passenger motor vehicles, together creating 55% of total exports. Canada (7K units), Belgium (7K units), Poland (6.7K units), Germany (6.2K units), the Czech Republic (5.8K units), France (5.7K units), Spain (4.7K units) and Qatar (4.5K units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Qatar (with a CAGR of +16.2%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($2.6B), Japan ($1.8B) and Turkey ($1.5B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 42% of global exports. Poland, the Czech Republic, the United States, Germany, Belgium, Canada, France, South Korea, Spain and Qatar lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, France, with a CAGR of +10.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average bus export price amounted to $72,018 per unit, shrinking by -2.1% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average export price increased by 12% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $86,025 per unit. From 2019 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Poland ($197,781 per unit), while Qatar ($6,037 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform