Caustic Soda Market

The article discusses the downward consumption trend of caustic soda worldwide, with forecasts showing a significant decrease in market volume and value by 2030. The analysis covers consumption, production, exports, imports, and pricing trends from 2012 to 2022, highlighting key countries and types of caustic soda dominating the market. Overall, the market is expected to continue its decline in demand, impacting the global caustic soda industry.

Market Forecast

Depressed by shrinking demand for caustic soda worldwide, the market is expected to continue its downward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -14.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 4.7M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -19.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Caustic Soda

In 2022, consumption of caustic soda decreased by -83.2% to 16M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption faced a drastic downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the consumption volume increased by 5.8% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 96M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The global caustic soda market value shrank dramatically to $9.7B in 2022, declining by -65.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption showed a deep slump. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $42.4B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Australia (3.2M tons), Brazil (2.7M tons) and Canada (1.1M tons), together accounting for 44% of global consumption. Sweden, Finland, Turkey, Italy, Spain, Indonesia, Austria, South Africa, Malaysia and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +13.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest caustic soda markets worldwide were Sweden ($1.3B), Australia ($1B) and Brazil ($1B), with a combined 34% share of the global market. Canada, South Africa, Turkey, Austria, Italy, Spain, Indonesia, Mexico, Malaysia and Finland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

Malaysia, with a CAGR of +16.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In Australia, caustic soda per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022.

Production

World Production of Caustic Soda

In 2022, production of caustic soda decreased by -81.5% to 17M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, production recorded a abrupt decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 6.3%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 95M tons. From 2021 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, caustic soda production dropped dramatically to $338M in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production saw a precipitous slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $35.6B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (4.4M tons), China (3.2M tons) and Germany (2.1M tons), with a combined 57% share of global production. Japan, Belgium, Russia, Canada, Norway, South Korea, Hungary, France, the Netherlands and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 35%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +23.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Caustic Soda

After six years of growth, purchases abroad of caustic soda decreased by -3.7% to 22M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 5%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 22M tons, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, caustic soda imports soared to $9.7B in 2022. In general, imports, however, recorded a prominent expansion. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

Australia (3.2M tons) and Brazil (2.7M tons) were the major importers of caustic soda in 2022, recording approx. 15% and 13% of total imports, respectively. The United States (1.3M tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by the Netherlands (1M tons). All these countries together took approx. 11% share of total imports. Sweden (830K tons), Finland (828K tons), Italy (730K tons), Turkey (640K tons), Belgium (639K tons), France (637K tons), Canada (607K tons), Indonesia (578K tons) and Spain (573K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +25.9%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Australia ($1.2B), Brazil ($1.1B) and the United States ($477M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 28% share of global imports. The Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, France, Turkey, Belgium, Italy, Indonesia, Canada and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

Indonesia, with a CAGR of +28.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) dominates imports structure, amounting to 20M tons, which was approx. 93% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by caustic soda in the solid form (1.5M tons), generating a 7% share of total imports.

Caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, caustic soda in the solid form (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) ($8.5B) constitutes the largest type of caustic soda imported worldwide, comprising 87% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by caustic soda in the solid form ($1.3B), with a 13% share of global imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) imports amounted to +7.0%.

Import Prices By Type

The average caustic soda import price stood at $452 per ton in 2022, surging by 96% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, caustic soda import price increased by +118.5% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was caustic soda in the solid form ($834 per ton), while the price for caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) stood at $424 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) (+5.5%).

Import Prices By Country

The average caustic soda import price stood at $452 per ton in 2022, rising by 96% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, caustic soda import price increased by +118.5% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in France ($536 per ton) and Indonesia ($507 per ton), while the United States ($376 per ton) and Australia ($380 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+9.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Caustic Soda

In 2022, overseas shipments of caustic soda increased by 7.2% to 23M tons, rising for the seventh year in a row after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, caustic soda exports surged to $9.8B in 2022. In general, exports enjoyed a strong expansion. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the United States (5.7M tons), distantly followed by China (3.2M tons), Germany (2.7M tons), Japan (2M tons), the Netherlands (1.4M tons) and Belgium (1.3M tons) represented the major exporters of caustic soda, together achieving 71% of total exports. The following exporters - France (994K tons), Russia (674K tons), Norway (520K tons), South Korea (432K tons), India (409K tons), Hungary (397K tons) and Poland (360K tons) - together made up 16% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +17.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest caustic soda supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($2.1B), China ($1.6B) and Germany ($963M), with a combined 47% share of global exports. Belgium, Japan, the Netherlands, France, India, South Korea, Poland, Hungary, Russia and Norway lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

India, with a CAGR of +20.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) dominates exports structure, recording 23M tons, which was near 94% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by caustic soda in the solid form (1.4M tons), achieving a 5.8% share of total exports.

Caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +3.2% from 2012 to 2022. Caustic soda in the solid form experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of caustic soda in the solid form (-1.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) ($8.9B) remains the largest type of caustic soda supplied worldwide, comprising 88% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by caustic soda in the solid form ($1.2B), with a 12% share of global exports.

For caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye), exports expanded at an average annual rate of +7.8% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices By Type

The average caustic soda export price stood at $428 per ton in 2022, increasing by 91% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, caustic soda export price increased by +118.9% against 2020 indices. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was caustic soda in the solid form ($848 per ton), while the average price for exports of caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) amounted to $396 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by caustic soda in aqueous solution (soda lye) (+4.5%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average caustic soda export price amounted to $428 per ton, picking up by 91% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, caustic soda export price increased by +118.9% against 2020 indices. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was India ($680 per ton), while Russia ($258 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+6.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform