Coniferous Roundwood Market

The global market for coniferous roundwood is forecasted to see an increase in consumption over the next eight years, with a projected CAGR of +1.6% from 2022 to 2030. The market volume is estimated to reach 1.6B cubic meters by the end of 2030. In 2022, consumption rose by 0.7%, reaching 1.4B cubic meters. The United States, Russia, and China were the top consuming countries. Production also saw growth, with an increase of 0.6% in 2022, totaling 1.4B cubic meters. The market value is projected to reach $142.6B by 2030. New Zealand emerged as a key player, with significant growth in both consumption and production. China led in imports, while New Zealand dominated in exports.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for roundwood (coniferous) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.6B cubic meters by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $142.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Roundwood (Coniferous)

In 2022, consumption of roundwood (coniferous) increased by 0.7% to 1.4B cubic meters, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 6.3% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 1.5B cubic meters. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global coniferous roundwood market size stood at $105.1B in 2022, increasing by 4.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $111.6B. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (317M cubic meters), Russia (172M cubic meters) and China (124M cubic meters), with a combined 43% share of global consumption. Canada, Sweden, Germany, Finland, Brazil, Chile, Poland, New Zealand, Japan and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for New Zealand (with a CAGR of +63.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($29B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Russia ($9.7B). It was followed by China.

In the United States, the coniferous roundwood market increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Russia (+4.8% per year) and China (-1.6% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of coniferous roundwood per capita consumption in 2022 were Finland (8.7 cubic meters per person), Sweden (6.4 cubic meters per person) and New Zealand (5.2 cubic meters per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by New Zealand (with a CAGR of +60.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Roundwood (Coniferous)

In 2022, production of roundwood (coniferous) increased by 0.6% to 1.4B cubic meters, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 5.7%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 1.4B cubic meters; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, coniferous roundwood production rose notably to $113.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production enjoyed a prominent increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 112% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $153B. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (321M cubic meters), Russia (172M cubic meters) and Canada (116M cubic meters), with a combined 43% share of global production. China, Sweden, Germany, New Zealand, Finland, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Poland and Chile lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Czech Republic (with a CAGR of +9.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Roundwood (Coniferous)

In 2022, global imports of roundwood (coniferous) shrank remarkably to 91M cubic meters, dropping by -21.4% compared with the previous year. Overall, imports recorded a pronounced curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 18%. Global imports peaked at 156M cubic meters in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, coniferous roundwood imports declined markedly to $10.5B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +14.7% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 44% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $13.2B, and then reduced notably in the following year.

Imports By Country

China was the main importing country with an import of around 31M cubic meters, which finished at 35% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Austria (8M cubic meters), Japan (7.5M cubic meters), Germany (5.2M cubic meters) and South Korea (4.2M cubic meters), together generating a 27% share of total imports. Sweden (4.1M cubic meters), India (3.6M cubic meters), Belgium (3.5M cubic meters), Poland (2.7M cubic meters), Canada (2.3M cubic meters) and Latvia (1.5M cubic meters) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to coniferous roundwood imports into China stood at -3.8%. At the same time, India (+58.8%), Latvia (+9.3%), Belgium (+8.8%) and Poland (+7.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, India emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +58.8% from 2012-2022. Canada experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Austria (-2.1%), South Korea (-3.4%), Japan (-4.4%), Germany (-5.3%) and Sweden (-5.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of India, Belgium and Poland increased by +3.9, +2.5 and +1.8 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($5.1B) constitutes the largest market for imported roundwood (coniferous) worldwide, comprising 48% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Japan ($849M), with an 8.1% share of global imports. It was followed by Austria, with a 7.4% share.

In China, coniferous roundwood imports expanded at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (-0.2% per year) and Austria (+2.4% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average coniferous roundwood import price amounted to $116 per cubic meter, growing by 1.6% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average import price increased by 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($161 per cubic meter), while Belgium ($52 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland (+8.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Roundwood (Coniferous)

In 2022, shipments abroad of roundwood (coniferous) decreased by -20.4% to 100M cubic meters, falling for the third year in a row after two years of growth. In general, exports showed a pronounced downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 26%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 171M cubic meters in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, coniferous roundwood exports shrank notably to $8.4B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 32% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $10.3B, and then reduced sharply in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, New Zealand (30M cubic meters) was the major exporter of roundwood (coniferous), creating 30% of total exports. It was distantly followed by the Czech Republic (9.9M cubic meters), Germany (9.4M cubic meters), Norway (8M cubic meters), Belgium (5.9M cubic meters) and the United States (5.4M cubic meters), together committing a 39% share of total exports. Canada (4.4M cubic meters), Poland (4.2M cubic meters), the Netherlands (3.3M cubic meters), Uruguay (3M cubic meters) and Sweden (1.9M cubic meters) followed a long way behind the leaders.

New Zealand experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of roundwood (coniferous). At the same time, Uruguay (+52.1%), Belgium (+15.5%), the Netherlands (+14.0%), Norway (+10.5%), Germany (+10.3%), Poland (+5.9%), the Czech Republic (+5.8%) and Sweden (+4.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Uruguay emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +52.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Canada (-9.4%) and the United States (-14.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of New Zealand (+9.1 p.p.), Germany (+6.7 p.p.), Norway (+5.8 p.p.), the Czech Republic (+5.6 p.p.), Belgium (+4.9 p.p.), Uruguay (+3 p.p.), the Netherlands (+2.6 p.p.) and Poland (+2.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Canada (-4.6 p.p.) and the United States (-15 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, New Zealand ($2.2B) remains the largest coniferous roundwood supplier worldwide, comprising 27% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Czech Republic ($1B), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 12% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in New Zealand totaled +5.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Czech Republic (+11.1% per year) and Germany (+16.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average coniferous roundwood export price amounted to $84 per cubic meter, picking up by 2.3% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, coniferous roundwood export price increased by +76.4% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 41% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($183 per cubic meter), while Norway ($37 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+14.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform