Driving and Non-Driving Axle Market

The article discusses the increasing demand for drive-axles with differential and non-driving axles globally, with a projected growth in market volume and value over the next eight years. China leads in both consumption and production of driving and non-driving axles. The United States is the largest importer of drive-axles, while Germany leads in exports. The global market for drive-axles is expected to see steady growth in the coming years, with notable fluctuations in prices and consumption patterns amongst key countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for drive-axles with differential and non-driving axles worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 27M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $243.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Drive-Axles with Differential and Non-Driving Axles

In 2022, consumption of drive-axles with differential and non-driving axles was finally on the rise to reach 19M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Over the period under review, consumption showed a remarkable increase. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 20M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global driving and non-driving axle market size totaled $145.2B in 2022, rising by 7.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a strong expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

China (4.8M tons) remains the largest driving and non-driving axle consuming country worldwide, accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, driving and non-driving axle consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (2M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (1.9M tons), with a 10% share.

In China, driving and non-driving axle consumption increased at an average annual rate of +9.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+7.8% per year) and India (+8.6% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($43.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by China ($16.1B). It was followed by Japan.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States amounted to +10.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: China (+9.8% per year) and Japan (+4.3% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of driving and non-driving axle per capita consumption in 2022 were Canada (11 kg per person), Japan (9.2 kg per person) and Spain (6.3 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +8.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Drive-Axles with Differential and Non-Driving Axles

In 2022, production of drive-axles with differential and non-driving axles increased by 0.6% to 19M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Over the period under review, production enjoyed a buoyant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 27%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 20M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, driving and non-driving axle production amounted to $139.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production showed a buoyant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 29%. Global production peaked at $143B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (5.3M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of driving and non-driving axle production, accounting for 28% of total volume. Moreover, driving and non-driving axle production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (2M tons), threefold. The United States (1.6M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 8.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +9.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+9.1% per year) and the United States (+7.8% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Drive-Axles with Differential and Non-Driving Axles

In 2022, supplies from abroad of drive-axles with differential and non-driving axles increased by 9.2% to 3.8M tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 3.9M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, driving and non-driving axle imports expanded remarkably to $28.7B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (644K tons), followed by Germany (418K tons) and Mexico (305K tons) represented the key importers of drive-axles with differential and non-driving axles, together making up 36% of total imports. The Czech Republic (143K tons), the UK (131K tons), France (129K tons), Turkey (126K tons), Canada (121K tons), Belgium (117K tons), Brazil (113K tons), Poland (111K tons), Thailand (102K tons) and Italy (96K tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +12.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($5.9B) constitutes the largest market for imported drive-axles with differential and non-driving axles worldwide, comprising 21% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Mexico ($2.8B), with a 9.7% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 9.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States stood at +6.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mexico (+2.5% per year) and Germany (+1.8% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average driving and non-driving axle import price stood at $7,508 per ton in 2022, with a decrease of -2.8% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average import price increased by 8%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $7,726 per ton in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($9,239 per ton), while Italy ($5,046 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+3.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Drive-Axles with Differential and Non-Driving Axles

In 2022, shipments abroad of drive-axles with differential and non-driving axles increased by 7.1% to 4M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 25%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, driving and non-driving axle exports rose to $28B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 24%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Germany (699K tons), China (499K tons), Mexico (376K tons), South Korea (275K tons), Italy (256K tons), Japan (249K tons) and the United States (244K tons), together accounting for 66% of total export. India (136K tons), Sweden (135K tons), France (122K tons), Belgium (119K tons), Poland (99K tons) and Austria (83K tons) held a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +18.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($5.1B), the United States ($3B) and Mexico ($2.9B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 39% share of global exports. Japan, China, Italy, South Korea, Austria, Sweden, Belgium, Poland, France and India lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 46%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, India, with a CAGR of +18.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average driving and non-driving axle export price amounted to $7,077 per ton, dropping by -3.9% against the previous year. In general, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 an increase of 5.4% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $7,431 per ton. From 2021 to 2022, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Austria ($13,119 per ton), while China ($3,845 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+3.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform