Fertilizer Market

The global fertilizer market is anticipated to see continued growth in consumption volume and value over the next eight years, with a forecasted increase in market volume to 723M tons and market value to $397.4B by 2030. China, the United States, and India are the top consumers and producers of fertilizers. The market is characterized by significant fluctuations in consumption, production, imports, and exports. Key products include urea, potassium chloride, and mixed NPK fertilizers. Import prices have shown a steady increase over the last decade, with notable fluctuations recorded in certain years. The highest growth rates in export prices were seen in products like potassium nitrates and phosphatic fertilizers. Overall, the fertilizer market is dynamic and showcases a promising outlook for future growth.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for fertilizers worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 723M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $397.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Fertilizers

Global fertilizer consumption amounted to 638M tons in 2022, rising by 2.6% against the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 8%. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The global fertilizer market value rose modestly to $379B in 2022, with an increase of 4.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (86M tons), the United States (71M tons) and India (70M tons), with a combined 36% share of global consumption. Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Belarus, Pakistan, France and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Iran (with a CAGR of +13.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($32.8B), India ($30.4B) and Brazil ($26.4B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 24% share of the global market. The United States, Turkey, Canada, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, France, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Belarus lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 21%.

Among the main consuming countries, Iran, with a CAGR of +11.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of fertilizer per capita consumption was registered in Belarus (1,179 kg per person), followed by Saudi Arabia (369 kg per person), Canada (349 kg per person) and Brazil (270 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of fertilizer was estimated at 81 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the fertilizer per capita consumption in Belarus amounted to +8.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Saudi Arabia (+9.0% per year) and Canada (-5.0% per year).

Consumption By Type

The products with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were urea (146M tons), potassium chloride (MOP) (100M tons) and mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers (64M tons), together comprising 48% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for potassium chloride (MOP) (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while consumption for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, urea ($61.8B), potassium chloride (MOP) ($37.8B) and mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers ($33B) were the products with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 48% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consumed products, potassium chloride (MOP), with a CAGR of +5.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Fertilizers

In 2022, approx. 594M tons of fertilizers were produced worldwide; remaining relatively unchanged against 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 7.2%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 603M tons in 2021, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, fertilizer production dropped to $218.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 36%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $244.5B, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (100M tons), Russia (65M tons) and the United States (55M tons), together comprising 37% of global production. India, Canada, Belarus, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 31%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +8.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Type

The products with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were urea (134M tons), potassium chloride (MOP) (84M tons) and mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers (63M tons), together comprising 46% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading produced products, was attained by potassium chloride (MOP) (with a CAGR of +6.3%), while production for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of fertilizers in terms of market size were urea ($45.4B), mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers ($27.6B) and calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) ($24.5B), with a combined 44% share of global production. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP), potassium chloride (MOP), diammonium phosphate, mixed nitrogen and phosphorus (NP) fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c., ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate, superphosphates, mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution, carnallite, sylvite and other crude natural potassium salts, potassium magnesium sulphate and mixtures of potassic fertilisers, potassium nitrates, phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates, mixed phosphorus and potassium (PK) fertilizers, potassium sulphate (SOP) and sodium nitrate lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 56%.

Potassium sulphate (SOP), with a CAGR of +4.2%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main produced products over the period under review, while production for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Fertilizers

For the fourth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in overseas purchases of fertilizers, which increased by 16% to 278M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fertilizer imports skyrocketed to $143B in 2022. In general, imports posted a strong increase. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Brazil (50M tons), followed by the United States (31M tons) and India (27M tons) represented the largest importers of fertilizers, together achieving 39% of total imports. China (12M tons), France (9.8M tons), Belgium (7.5M tons), Australia (7M tons), Germany (6.6M tons), Indonesia (6.3M tons), Turkey (5.8M tons), Malaysia (5.7M tons), the UK (5.1M tons) and Canada (4.9M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Brazil (with a CAGR of +10.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fertilizer importing markets worldwide were Brazil ($26.5B), India ($17.1B) and the United States ($12.4B), with a combined 39% share of global imports.

Brazil, with a CAGR of +12.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2022, potassium chloride (MOP) (80M tons) and urea (65M tons) represented the largest types of fertilizersin the world, together finishing at near 52% of total imports. Ammonium sulphate (22M tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers (16M tons), calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (15M tons) and diammonium phosphate (14M tons). All these products together took near 24% share of total imports. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) (12M tons), mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution (11M tons), mixed nitrogen and phosphorus (NP) fertilizers (11M tons), ammonium nitrate (8.2M tons), superphosphates (7.4M tons) and nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c. (6M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for ammonium sulphate (with a CAGR of +8.2%), while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, urea ($38.9B), potassium chloride (MOP) ($31B) and diammonium phosphate ($12.2B) were the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 57% share of global imports. Mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers, monoammonium phosphate (MAP), mixed nitrogen and phosphorus (NP) fertilizers, ammonium sulphate, calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN), mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution, ammonium nitrate, superphosphates, nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c., potassium sulphate (SOP), potassium nitrates, carnallite, sylvite and other crude natural potassium salts, potassium magnesium sulphate and mixtures of potassic fertilisers, mixed phosphorus and potassium (PK) fertilizers, phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates and sodium nitrate lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 43%.

Mixed nitrogen and phosphorus (NP) fertilizers, with a CAGR of +11.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main imported products over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average fertilizer import price amounted to $515 per ton, with an increase of 32% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated mild growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, fertilizer import price increased by +89.7% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 44% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was potassium nitrates ($1,190 per ton), while the price for phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates ($208 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by sodium nitrate (+5.5%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average fertilizer import price stood at $515 per ton in 2022, rising by 32% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, fertilizer import price increased by +89.7% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 44%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($645 per ton), while Indonesia ($328 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+3.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Fertilizers

In 2022, global exports of fertilizers rose sharply to 234M tons, surging by 5.9% compared with the year before. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 9.9%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fertilizer exports surged to $118.7B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports posted a strong increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 58%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the three major exporters of fertilizers, namely Russia, Canada and China, represented more than third of total export. It was distantly followed by the United States (16M tons), Morocco (13M tons) and the Netherlands (11M tons), together comprising a 17% share of total exports. Belgium (11M tons), Germany (7.5M tons), Belarus (6.4M tons), Egypt (4.4M tons), Oman (3.8M tons), Poland (3.7M tons) and Norway (3.6M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Morocco (with a CAGR of +10.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Russia ($20.7B), Canada ($13.6B) and China ($11.3B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 38% of global exports. The United States, Morocco, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Belarus, Egypt, Norway, Poland and Oman lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Germany, with a CAGR of +13.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, potassium chloride (MOP) (65M tons) and urea (53M tons) were the key types of fertilizersin the world, together reaching approx. 48% of total exports. It was distantly followed by ammonium sulphate (23M tons), diammonium phosphate (15M tons), mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers (15M tons), calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) (14M tons) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) (13M tons), together creating a 33% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for carnallite, sylvite and other crude natural potassium salts, potassium magnesium sulphate and mixtures of potassic fertilisers (with a CAGR of +11.2%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of exported fertilizers were urea ($29.9B), potassium chloride (MOP) ($27.7B) and diammonium phosphate ($12.3B), with a combined 56% share of global exports. Mixed nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) fertilizers, monoammonium phosphate (MAP), ammonium sulphate, mixed nitrogen and phosphorus (NP) fertilizers, calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN), ammonium nitrate, mixtures of urea and ammonium nitrate in aqueous or ammoniacal solution, nitrogenous fertilizers n.e.c., superphosphates, potassium nitrates, carnallite, sylvite and other crude natural potassium salts, potassium magnesium sulphate and mixtures of potassic fertilisers, potassium sulphate (SOP), mixed phosphorus and potassium (PK) fertilizers, phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates and sodium nitrate lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 44%.

Carnallite, sylvite and other crude natural potassium salts, potassium magnesium sulphate and mixtures of potassic fertilisers, with a CAGR of +11.5%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exported products over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

The average fertilizer export price stood at $507 per ton in 2022, picking up by 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated mild growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, fertilizer export price increased by +93.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 44%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was potassium nitrates ($1,133 per ton), while the average price for exports of ammonium sulphate ($249 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates (+6.2%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average fertilizer export price amounted to $507 per ton, increasing by 34% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, fertilizer export price increased by +93.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 44% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Norway ($623 per ton), while Belarus ($365 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland (+3.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform