Heat Pump Market

The global heat pump market is expected to experience steady growth in both consumption volume and market value from 2022 to 2030, driven by increasing demand for heat pumps other than air conditioning machines. Market performance is projected to see a CAGR of +1.4% in consumption volume and +3.5% in market value over the forecasted period. The article details trends in consumption, production, imports, and exports of heat pumps across various countries, highlighting significant growth rates and fluctuating trends in prices. China emerges as a dominant player in both production and exports, with other countries like Spain and South Korea showing notable rates of growth in market size and export value.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for heat pumps other than air conditioning machines worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.8M units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $11.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Heat Pumps other than Air Conditioning Machines

In 2022, consumption of heat pumps other than air conditioning machines decreased by -1.5% to 4.3M units, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 4.6M units in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global heat pump market revenue skyrocketed to $8.7B in 2022, increasing by 17% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (551K units), India (490K units) and Germany (386K units), with a combined 33% share of global consumption. The United States, Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, Mexico, Canada, France, the UK, Italy and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +40.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest heat pump markets worldwide were the United States ($2B), Germany ($1.1B) and India ($943M), together comprising 47% of the global market. Sweden, Japan, China, France, Switzerland, Italy, the UK, Spain, Mexico and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Spain, with a CAGR of +43.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of heat pump per capita consumption in 2022 were Switzerland (23 units per 1000 persons), Sweden (18 units per 1000 persons) and Germany (4.7 units per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +39.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Heat Pumps other than Air Conditioning Machines

In 2022, production of heat pumps other than air conditioning machines increased by 3.5% to 5M units, rising for the fifth year in a row after two years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 8.8% against the previous year. Global production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, heat pump production skyrocketed to $8.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, production reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of heat pump production was China (1.9M units), accounting for 38% of total volume. Moreover, heat pump production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (484K units), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Japan (361K units), with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +4.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.9% per year) and Japan (+1.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Heat Pumps other than Air Conditioning Machines

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was significant decline in supplies from abroad of heat pumps other than air conditioning machines, when their volume decreased by -38% to 1.9M units. In general, imports, however, posted a temperate increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 52%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 3.1M units, and then shrank notably in the following year.

In value terms, heat pump imports surged to $5.2B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, posted resilient growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 60%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the four major importers of heat pumps other than air conditioning machines, namely Switzerland, Germany, France and Italy, represented more than third of total import. Australia (96K units) held a 5% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Canada (4.8%). Poland (83K units), the United States (78K units), the Netherlands (72K units), Belgium (68K units), the UK (67K units), Spain (43K units) and Sweden (37K units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +17.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest heat pump importing markets worldwide were Germany ($806M), France ($556M) and Italy ($505M), together comprising 36% of global imports. Poland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, the UK, Sweden, Australia, Spain, the United States and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

Among the main importing countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +28.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average heat pump import price stood at $2,722 per unit in 2022, growing by 104% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a buoyant increase. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($4,285 per unit), while Canada ($373 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden (+11.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Heat Pumps other than Air Conditioning Machines

In 2022, after five years of growth, there was significant decline in shipments abroad of heat pumps other than air conditioning machines, when their volume decreased by -26.2% to 2.6M units. In general, exports, however, saw a resilient increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 60% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 3.6M units, and then reduced dramatically in the following year.

In value terms, heat pump exports skyrocketed to $5.7B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed resilient growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 56% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

China prevails in exports structure, accounting for 1.4M units, which was approx. 52% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by France (221K units) and Germany (155K units), together committing a 14% share of total exports. Japan (119K units), Sweden (94K units), Italy (80K units), the UK (77K units), South Korea (76K units), Belgium (64K units), the Czech Republic (53K units) and Slovakia (49K units) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to heat pump exports from China stood at +22.4%. At the same time, South Korea (+66.9%), the UK (+27.7%), the Czech Republic (+22.8%), Belgium (+22.1%), Japan (+5.7%) and Slovakia (+5.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, South Korea emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +66.9% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Germany (-1.1%), Sweden (-1.1%), France (-3.1%) and Italy (-5.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China, South Korea, the UK, Belgium and the Czech Republic increased by +40, +2.8, +2.5, +1.9 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($1.2B), Germany ($818M) and France ($761M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 48% share of global exports. Sweden, Italy, Japan, the Czech Republic, Belgium, South Korea, Slovakia and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

South Korea, with a CAGR of +81.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average heat pump export price amounted to $2,155 per unit, picking up by 74% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a tangible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Sweden ($5,287 per unit), while China ($844 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Slovakia (+16.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform