Hot-Rolled Steel Bar and Rod Market

The article discusses the projected downward trend in the market for hot-rolled steel bars and rods, with a decrease in predicted consumption volume and value over the next eight years. It provides detailed analysis on global consumption, production, imports, exports, key market trends, growth rates, key importing and exporting countries, as well as average prices for hot-rolled steel bars and rods.

Market Forecast

The market for hot-rolled steel bar and rod is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -60.8% for the eight-year period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 474K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -62.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $353M (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Hot-Rolled Steel Bars and Rods

Global hot-rolled steel bar and rod consumption was estimated at 845M tons in 2022, increasing by 1.9% compared with the year before. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 863M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The value of the market for hot-rolled steel bars and rods worldwide expanded significantly to $820B in 2022, with an increase of 15% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption enjoyed a buoyant expansion. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of hot-rolled steel bar and rod consumption was China (604M tons), accounting for 71% of total volume. Moreover, hot-rolled steel bar and rod consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (29M tons), more than tenfold. South Korea (22M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 2.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +4.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+12.1% per year) and South Korea (+3.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($578.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($33.6B). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the hot-rolled steel bar and rod market increased at an average annual rate of +8.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+10.5% per year) and the United States (+4.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of hot-rolled steel bar and rod per capita consumption in 2022 were South Korea (427 kg per person), China (425 kg per person) and the United States (40 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +10.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Hot-Rolled Steel Bars and Rods

In 2022, approx. 845M tons of hot-rolled steel bars and rods were produced worldwide; almost unchanged from 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 8.2%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 866M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, hot-rolled steel bar and rod production fell slightly to $564.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +5.3% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 80% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $706.8B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (610M tons) remains the largest hot-rolled steel bar and rod producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 72% of total volume. Moreover, hot-rolled steel bar and rod production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (30M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by South Korea (22M tons), with a 2.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +4.3%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+12.9% per year) and South Korea (+3.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Hot-Rolled Steel Bars and Rods

In 2022, the amount of hot-rolled steel bars and rods imported worldwide declined modestly to 64M tons, dropping by -4.7% against 2021 figures. Overall, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 73M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, hot-rolled steel bar and rod imports expanded sharply to $64.2B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +82.6% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 65% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (3.8M tons) and the United States (3.6M tons) were the key importers of hot-rolled steel bars and rodsaround the world, together reaching near 12% of total imports. The Netherlands (2.2M tons), South Korea (2.2M tons), Hong Kong SAR (2M tons), Italy (1.8M tons), Belgium (1.8M tons), Israel (1.7M tons), Romania (1.7M tons), Thailand (1.7M tons), France (1.6M tons), Poland (1.4M tons) and Singapore (1.4M tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Romania (with a CAGR of +9.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest hot-rolled steel bar and rod importing markets worldwide were Germany ($5.3B), the United States ($4.1B) and Italy ($2.8B), with a combined 19% share of global imports. France, Belgium, Thailand, the Netherlands, South Korea, Singapore, Romania, Poland, Israel and Hong Kong SAR lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

Romania, with a CAGR of +11.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, not further worked than forged, hot-rolled, hot drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after rolling (30M tons) and iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (21M tons) represented roughly 78% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by hot-rolled bars in bearing steels (7.6M tons) and steel, alloy; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (5.4M tons), together making up a 20% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading imported products, was attained by hot-rolled wire rod in coil of stainless steel (with a CAGR of +3.3%), while imports for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of imported hot-rolled steel bars and rods were iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, not further worked than forged, hot-rolled, hot drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after rolling ($25.3B), iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils ($18.8B) and hot-rolled bars in bearing steels ($9.9B), together comprising 83% of global imports. Steel, alloy; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, hot-rolled wire rod in coil of stainless steel, hot-rolled round bars of stainless steel and steel, stainless lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

In terms of the main imported products, hot-rolled wire rod in coil of stainless steel, with a CAGR of +4.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

The average import price for hot-rolled steel bars and rods stood at $1,001 per ton in 2022, surging by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a slight expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, hot-rolled steel bar and rod import price increased by +62.0% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 39%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was hot-rolled round bars of stainless steel ($5,251 per ton), while the price for iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, not further worked than forged, hot-rolled, hot drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after rolling ($853 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by steel, stainless; bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or extruded, other than of circular cross-section (+3.9%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for hot-rolled steel bars and rods amounted to $1,001 per ton, increasing by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, hot-rolled steel bar and rod import price increased by +62.0% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 39% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,540 per ton), while Hong Kong SAR ($737 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Singapore (+5.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Hot-Rolled Steel Bars and Rods

In 2022, global hot-rolled steel bar and rod exports reduced to 64M tons, waning by -9.6% compared with 2021. Over the period under review, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 17% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 95M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, hot-rolled steel bar and rod exports expanded to $61.8B in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a modest expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +73.2% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 67%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from China (7.1M tons), Turkey (7.1M tons), Malaysia (5M tons), Russia (3.6M tons), Italy (3.6M tons), Germany (3.2M tons), Japan (2.6M tons), Spain (1.9M tons), Vietnam (1.7M tons), South Korea (1.6M tons), Poland (1.6M tons) and France (1.4M tons), together recording 63% of total export. The Czech Republic (1.2M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Malaysia (with a CAGR of +34.9%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest hot-rolled steel bar and rod supplying countries worldwide were China ($6.8B), Turkey ($5.4B) and Italy ($4.6B), with a combined 27% share of global exports. Germany, Japan, Spain, Malaysia, Russia, France, Poland, the Czech Republic, South Korea and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Malaysia, with a CAGR of +29.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, not further worked than forged, hot-rolled, hot drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after rolling (29M tons) and iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (23M tons) represented the key types of hot-rolled steel bars and rodsin the world, together comprising 81% of total exports. It was distantly followed by hot-rolled bars in bearing steels (6.8M tons) and steel, alloy; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (4M tons), together constituting a 17% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exported products, was attained by iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (with a CAGR of +2.8%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, not further worked than forged, hot-rolled, hot drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after rolling ($24.1B), iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils ($19.6B) and hot-rolled bars in bearing steels ($8.7B) appeared to be the products with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 85% of global exports.

Among the main exported products, iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, with a CAGR of +4.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

The average export price for hot-rolled steel bars and rods stood at $970 per ton in 2022, surging by 15% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, hot-rolled steel bar and rod export price increased by +65.7% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 44%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was steel, stainless ($5,458 per ton), while the average price for exports of iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, not further worked than forged, hot-rolled, hot drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after rolling ($834 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by steel, alloy; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (+4.0%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for hot-rolled steel bars and rods stood at $970 per ton in 2022, jumping by 15% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, hot-rolled steel bar and rod export price increased by +65.7% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 44% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($1,421 per ton), while Malaysia ($480 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform