Lock And Key Market

The global market for padlocks, locks, and keys of base metal is projected to increase with a CAGR of +1.2% in volume and +3.0% in value from 2022 to 2030. China, the United States, and Germany were the top consumers in 2022, while China, Germany, and the United States were the top exporters. Base metal mountings and fittings dominated the imports and exports structure. Prices varied by product type and country of origin, with the United States having the highest export price in 2022. Overall, the market is expected to see continued growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for padlocks, locks and keys of base metal worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 12M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $89.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Padlocks, Locks And Keys Of Base Metal

In 2022, the amount of padlocks, locks and keys of base metal consumed worldwide shrank slightly to 11M tons, dropping by -2.7% on the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 8.6% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 11M tons, and then fell in the following year.

The global lock and key market size reached $70.2B in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (2.9M tons), the United States (1.5M tons) and Germany (588K tons), together comprising 44% of global consumption. Turkey, India, Mexico, the UK, Egypt, Italy, Poland, Thailand, Canada and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 23%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +12.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest lock and key markets worldwide were China ($14B), the United States ($9.9B) and Germany ($5B), with a combined 41% share of the global market. Egypt, the UK, Italy, Thailand, Turkey, Canada, Poland, India, Russia and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

Among the main consuming countries, India, with a CAGR of +8.5%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of lock and key per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (7.1 kg per person), Poland (6 kg per person) and Canada (5.4 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +11.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Padlocks, Locks And Keys Of Base Metal

After two years of growth, production of padlocks, locks and keys of base metal decreased by -3.9% to 11M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 22% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 11M tons in 2021, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

In value terms, lock and key production contracted to $62.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate modest growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 11%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $67.9B, and then contracted in the following year.

Production By Country

China (6.1M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of lock and key production, accounting for 56% of total volume. Moreover, lock and key production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (674K tons), ninefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Mexico (517K tons), with a 4.8% share.

In China, lock and key production increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (-1.5% per year) and Mexico (+5.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Padlocks, Locks And Keys Of Base Metal

In 2022, approx. 7.5M tons of padlocks, locks and keys of base metal were imported worldwide; stabilizing at 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 18%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 7.6M tons, and then fell slightly in the following year.

In value terms, lock and key imports amounted to $53.1B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The United States was the main importer of padlocks, locks and keys of base metal in the world, with the volume of imports recording 1.8M tons, which was approx. 24% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Germany (477K tons), comprising a 6.4% share of total imports. Canada (329K tons), Poland (323K tons), the UK (242K tons), India (220K tons), Russia (210K tons), the Netherlands (208K tons), France (176K tons), Italy (170K tons), Spain (158K tons), Indonesia (134K tons) and the Czech Republic (116K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, India (+15.0%), the Netherlands (+11.4%), Canada (+7.6%), Poland (+4.6%), the Czech Republic (+4.3%), Spain (+3.1%), Italy (+2.6%), Indonesia (+2.6%), the UK (+2.2%) and Germany (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, India emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +15.0% from 2012-2022. France and Russia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. The United States (+4 p.p.), India (+2 p.p.) and Canada (+1.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($11.8B) constitutes the largest market for imported padlocks, locks and keys of base metal worldwide, comprising 22% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($4.1B), with a 7.7% share of global imports. It was followed by Canada, with a 4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States amounted to +5.1%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+2.1% per year) and Canada (+2.4% per year).

Imports By Type

Base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal prevails in imports structure, resulting at 6.5M tons, which was near 88% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by locks; (other than those for motor vehicles or furniture), (key, combination or electrically operated), of base metal (430K tons), committing a 5.8% share of total imports. Base metal motor vehicle locks (190K tons) and base metal padlocks (177K tons) took a little share of total imports.

Base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, locks; (other than those for motor vehicles or furniture), (key, combination or electrically operated), of base metal (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Base metal motor vehicle locks and base metal padlocks experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal (+3.2 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal ($42.3B) constitutes the largest type of padlocks, locks and keys of base metal imported worldwide, comprising 80% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by locks; (other than those for motor vehicles or furniture), (key, combination or electrically operated), of base metal ($5.2B), with a 9.9% share of global imports. It was followed by base metal motor vehicle locks, with a 5.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal imports amounted to +4.5%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: locks; (other than those for motor vehicles or furniture), (key, combination or electrically operated), of base metal (+3.8% per year) and base metal motor vehicle locks (-0.4% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average lock and key import price amounted to $7,126 per ton, surging by 4.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the average import price increased by 5%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was base metal keys ($24,570 per ton), while the price for base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal ($6,491 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by metal furniture lock (+4.0%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average lock and key import price amounted to $7,126 per ton, increasing by 4.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 5% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($10,093 per ton), while India ($3,385 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+2.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Padlocks, Locks And Keys Of Base Metal

Global lock and key exports dropped to 7.1M tons in 2022, shrinking by -3.2% against 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 33% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 7.4M tons in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

In value terms, lock and key exports amounted to $54.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 24% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (3.3M tons) was the key exporter of padlocks, locks and keys of base metal, committing 46% of total exports. Germany (563K tons) held a 7.9% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Austria (5.8%). The following exporters - the United States (294K tons), Mexico (283K tons), Italy (215K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (182K tons), Turkey (176K tons), Poland (176K tons), Canada (120K tons) and South Korea (114K tons) - together made up 22% of total exports.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Turkey (+5.7%), Poland (+4.7%), Austria (+3.8%), Mexico (+3.2%), Canada (+3.2%) and the United States (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Turkey emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +5.7% from 2012-2022. Taiwan (Chinese), Italy, South Korea and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. China (+6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Germany saw its share reduced by -3.3% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($19.3B) remains the largest lock and key supplier worldwide, comprising 36% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($6.3B), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with a 6.8% share.

In China, lock and key exports expanded at an average annual rate of +8.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+0.6% per year) and the United States (+3.7% per year).

Exports By Type

Base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal dominates exports structure, amounting to 6.2M tons, which was near 87% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by locks; (other than those for motor vehicles or furniture), (key, combination or electrically operated), of base metal (464K tons), making up a 6.5% share of total exports. Base metal padlocks (198K tons) and base metal motor vehicle locks (174K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +3.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, locks; (other than those for motor vehicles or furniture), (key, combination or electrically operated), of base metal (+1.7%) and base metal motor vehicle locks (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Base metal padlocks experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal (+3.1 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal ($42.4B) remains the largest type of padlocks, locks and keys of base metal supplied worldwide, comprising 78% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by locks; (other than those for motor vehicles or furniture), (key, combination or electrically operated), of base metal ($5.9B), with an 11% share of global exports. It was followed by base metal motor vehicle locks, with a 5.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal exports amounted to +5.0%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: locks; (other than those for motor vehicles or furniture), (key, combination or electrically operated), of base metal (+4.7% per year) and base metal motor vehicle locks (+0.0% per year).

Export Prices By Type

The average lock and key export price stood at $7,586 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 4.2% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the average export price increased by 19% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $8,508 per ton. From 2017 to 2022, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was base metal keys ($24,528 per ton), while the average price for exports of base metal mountings, fittings and similar articles for furniture, doors, staircases, windows, trunks, chests etc, castors with mountings of base metal, automatic door closers of base metal ($6,841 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by metal furniture lock (+5.2%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average lock and key export price amounted to $7,586 per ton, rising by 4.2% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the average export price increased by 19% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $8,508 per ton. From 2017 to 2022, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($12,603 per ton), while Turkey ($4,817 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Taiwan (Chinese) (+4.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform