Lucerne Meal and Pellets Market

The global lucerne meal and pellets market is projected to see growth in both volume and value terms from 2022 to 2030. Key insights include the market performance forecast, top consuming countries such as China, India, and the United States, production trends, import and export analysis, and price variations among major exporting countries. Overall, the market is expected to show a positive trend with opportunities for growth and investment in the lucerne industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for lucerne meal and pellets worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 19M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $7.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Lucerne (Alfalfa) Meal And Pellets

In 2022, consumption of lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets was finally on the rise to reach 18M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year declining trend. In general, consumption, however, recorded a mild setback. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 22M tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global lucerne meal and pellets market size reached $6.4B in 2022, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $7.5B. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (3.6M tons) remains the largest lucerne meal and pellets consuming country worldwide, accounting for 20% of total volume. Moreover, lucerne meal and pellets consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (1.3M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States (1.3M tons), with a 7.2% share.

In China, lucerne meal and pellets consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+1.9% per year) and the United States (-5.0% per year).

In value terms, China ($1.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Australia ($453M). It was followed by India.

In China, the lucerne meal and pellets market remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Australia (+2.7% per year) and India (+3.7% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of lucerne meal and pellets per capita consumption was registered in Australia (33 kg per person), followed by France (9.9 kg per person), Russia (3.8 kg per person) and Turkey (3.8 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of lucerne meal and pellets was estimated at 2.2 kg per person.

In Australia, lucerne meal and pellets per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: France (+0.4% per year) and Russia (+0.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Lucerne (Alfalfa) Meal And Pellets

In 2022, after three years of decline, there was growth in production of lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets, when its volume increased by 1.9% to 18M tons. Overall, production, however, recorded a slight decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 22M tons. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, lucerne meal and pellets production amounted to $6.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 19%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $7.4B. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (3.6M tons) remains the largest lucerne meal and pellets producing country worldwide, accounting for 20% of total volume. Moreover, lucerne meal and pellets production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (1.4M tons), threefold. India (1.3M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.4% share.

In China, lucerne meal and pellets production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-5.0% per year) and India (+1.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Lucerne (Alfalfa) Meal And Pellets

After two years of growth, supplies from abroad of lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets decreased by -19.2% to 1.1M tons in 2022. In general, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 1.4M tons in 2021, and then shrank markedly in the following year.

In value terms, lucerne meal and pellets imports contracted to $372M in 2022. Overall, imports, however, saw a modest increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 20%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $386M in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United Arab Emirates (244K tons), distantly followed by Japan (84K tons), Germany (83K tons), the United States (65K tons), Belgium (60K tons) and Jordan (54K tons) were the major importers of lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets, together creating 51% of total imports. Qatar (51K tons), the UK (47K tons), Portugal (43K tons), China (37K tons), the Netherlands (37K tons), Greece (36K tons) and France (36K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to lucerne meal and pellets imports into the United Arab Emirates stood at -3.7%. At the same time, China (+40.2%), Jordan (+29.0%), Qatar (+17.4%), Greece (+8.5%), France (+2.8%), Germany (+1.7%) and Portugal (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +40.2% from 2012-2022. The United States, the UK and the Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-2.5%) and Belgium (-3.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Jordan (+4.4 p.p.), Qatar (+3.6 p.p.), China (+3.1 p.p.) and Greece (+1.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Japan, Belgium and the United Arab Emirates saw its share reduced by -1.8%, -1.9% and -8.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($78M) constitutes the largest market for imported lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets worldwide, comprising 21% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Japan ($36M), with a 9.6% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United Arab Emirates totaled -1.9%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Japan (-1.9% per year) and the United States (+3.8% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average lucerne meal and pellets import price stood at $325 per ton in 2022, picking up by 19% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Qatar ($444 per ton), while Portugal ($213 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+2.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Lucerne (Alfalfa) Meal And Pellets

After two years of growth, overseas shipments of lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets decreased by -1.9% to 1.5M tons in 2022. In general, exports showed a mild curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 1.7M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, lucerne meal and pellets exports rose markedly to $439M in 2022. Overall, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $470M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Spain represented the key exporter of lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets in the world, with the volume of exports recording 439K tons, which was approx. 28% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Italy (180K tons), the United States (178K tons), France (142K tons), Egypt (127K tons), Canada (109K tons) and South Africa (96K tons), together constituting a 54% share of total exports.

Exports from Spain decreased at an average annual rate of -2.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Egypt (+27.2%), South Africa (+15.7%) and Canada (+3.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Egypt emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +27.2% from 2012-2022. By contrast, France (-1.0%), the United States (-2.9%) and Italy (-6.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Egypt, South Africa and Canada increased by +7.6, +4.9 and +2.7 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest lucerne meal and pellets supplying countries worldwide were Spain ($111M), Italy ($56M) and the United States ($45M), with a combined 48% share of global exports. Egypt, France, Canada and South Africa lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Egypt, with a CAGR of +29.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average lucerne meal and pellets export price amounted to $284 per ton, increasing by 8.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in South Africa ($346 per ton) and Egypt ($319 per ton), while France ($245 per ton) and Spain ($253 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform