Molasse Market

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global molasse market, projecting an upward consumption trend driven by rising demand. The market performance is forecasted to increase slightly with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% in volume and +3.1% in value from 2022 to 2030. The top consuming countries in 2022 were Brazil, India, and China, while the largest producers were Brazil, India, and China. The key exporting country was India, accounting for 25% of total exports, with cane molasses being the main type of exported molasses. Import and export prices have shown growth trends over the last decade, with significant variations among major importing and exporting countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for molasse worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 66M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $18.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Molasses

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was growth in consumption of molasses, when its volume increased by 4.4% to 60M tons. Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 63M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global molasse market size expanded rapidly to $14.5B in 2022, with an increase of 7.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $14.7B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Brazil (16M tons), India (10M tons) and China (3.4M tons), together accounting for 48% of global consumption. Thailand, the United States, Pakistan, Mexico, the Philippines and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +8.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest molasse markets worldwide were China ($2.9B), Brazil ($2.5B) and India ($1.4B), with a combined 47% share of the global market. Turkey, the Philippines, the United States, Thailand, Mexico and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +8.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of molasse per capita consumption in 2022 were Brazil (72 kg per person), Thailand (46 kg per person) and the Philippines (16 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +7.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Molasses

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was growth in production of molasses, when its volume increased by 3.2% to 60M tons. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 4.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 63M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, molasse production fell to $15.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a slight expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +15.4% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 29% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $17.1B in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Brazil (16M tons), India (12M tons) and China (3.4M tons), together accounting for 51% of global production. Thailand, Pakistan, the United States, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +2.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Molasses

After two years of decline, supplies from abroad of molasses increased by 11% to 7.1M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, molasse imports soared to $1.5B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The United States (945K tons), the Philippines (639K tons), the UK (635K tons), Vietnam (479K tons), Turkey (413K tons), South Korea (411K tons), Belgium (354K tons), Italy (241K tons), the Netherlands (238K tons), France (228K tons), Spain (208K tons) and Hungary (197K tons) represented roughly 71% of total imports in 2022. Canada (196K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +49.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest molasse importing markets worldwide were the United States ($195M), the UK ($161M) and the Philippines ($141M), together accounting for 32% of global imports.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +41.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

In 2022, cane molasses (5M tons) was the major type of molasses, committing 71% of total imports. It was distantly followed by molasses (excluding cane molasses) (2M tons), committing a 29% share of total imports.

Cane molasses was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022. molasses (excluding cane molasses) (-1.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of cane molasses (+7.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of molasses (excluding cane molasses) (-7.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, cane molasses ($1.1B) constitutes the largest type of molasses imported worldwide, comprising 69% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by molasses (excluding cane molasses) ($471M), with a 31% share of global imports.

For cane molasses, imports expanded at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average molasse import price amounted to $216 per ton, growing by 13% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was molasses (excluding cane molasses) ($232 per ton), while the price for cane molasses stood at $210 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by non-cane molasses (+2.9%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average molasse import price amounted to $216 per ton, surging by 13% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($253 per ton), while Vietnam ($153 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+6.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Molasses

In 2022, the amount of molasses exported worldwide totaled 6.7M tons, standing approx. at 2021. In general, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 9.1%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 6.7M tons in 2013; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, molasse exports expanded remarkably to $1.2B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +60.0% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

India was the key exporter of molasses in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 1.7M tons, which was near 25% of total exports in 2022. Indonesia (605K tons) took a 9.1% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Russia (7%), Australia (6.1%) and Pakistan (4.6%). The following exporters - Guatemala (263K tons), El Salvador (251K tons), Germany (225K tons), Poland (218K tons), the Netherlands (174K tons), Thailand (156K tons), Egypt (155K tons) and Nicaragua (149K tons) - together made up 24% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to molasse exports from India stood at +15.2%. At the same time, Pakistan (+20.3%), Nicaragua (+9.1%), Guatemala (+5.1%), Poland (+4.8%), Indonesia (+4.6%) and El Salvador (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Pakistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +20.3% from 2012-2022. Australia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.1%), Russia (-2.6%), Germany (-3.7%), Egypt (-4.9%) and Thailand (-16.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of India, Pakistan and Indonesia increased by +19, +3.8 and +2.9 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($266M) remains the largest molasse supplier worldwide, comprising 21% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Indonesia ($105M), with an 8.4% share of global exports. It was followed by Russia, with a 7.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in India stood at +20.1%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Indonesia (+9.2% per year) and Russia (-0.4% per year).

Exports By Type

In 2022, cane molasses (4.8M tons) was the main type of molasses, constituting 72% of total exports. It was distantly followed by molasses (excluding cane molasses) (1.9M tons), creating a 28% share of total exports.

Cane molasses was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022. molasses (excluding cane molasses) (-1.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Cane molasses (+7.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while molasses (excluding cane molasses) saw its share reduced by -7.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, cane molasses ($852M) remains the largest type of molasses supplied worldwide, comprising 68% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by molasses (excluding cane molasses) ($394M), with a 32% share of global exports.

For cane molasses, exports increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average molasse export price amounted to $187 per ton, with an increase of 10% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.0%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the average export price increased by 16%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was molasses (excluding cane molasses) ($210 per ton), while the average price for exports of cane molasses amounted to $178 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by cane molasses (+3.6%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average molasse export price amounted to $187 per ton, rising by 10% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average export price increased by 16%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($247 per ton), while El Salvador ($146 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand (+7.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform