Olive Oil Market

The global olive oil market is projected to see an upward trend in consumption and value from 2022 to 2030, with a forecasted increase in market volume to 4.1M tons and market value to $18.7B by the end of 2030. Spain leads in both production and consumption of olive oil, with Turkey and Morocco also significant players in the market. The market experienced a decline in consumption and value in 2022, but is expected to rebound in the coming years. Japan is the largest importing country, while Tunisia leads in olive oil exports, with a significant share of global exports.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for olive oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.1M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $18.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Olive Oil And Its Fractions

In 2022, consumption of olive oil and its fractions decreased by -10.4% to 3.5M tons, falling for the second year in a row after four years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a mild slump. Global consumption peaked at 4M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global olive oil market revenue declined remarkably to $12.8B in 2022, waning by -18.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $15.7B in 2021, and then contracted notably in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of olive oil consumption was Spain (1.8M tons), accounting for 52% of total volume. Moreover, olive oil consumption in Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Turkey (228K tons), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Morocco (182K tons), with a 5.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Spain stood at +2.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Turkey (+1.7% per year) and Morocco (+5.1% per year).

In value terms, the largest olive oil markets worldwide were Spain ($5B), Turkey ($2.9B) and Morocco ($781M), with a combined 68% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +9.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of olive oil per capita consumption was registered in Spain (39 kg per person), followed by Tunisia (13 kg per person), Portugal (13 kg per person) and Morocco (4.8 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of olive oil was estimated at 0.4 kg per person.

In Spain, olive oil per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Tunisia (+9.1% per year) and Portugal (+4.4% per year).

Production

World Production of Olive Oil And Its Fractions

In 2022, production of olive oil and its fractions decreased by -4.4% to 3.6M tons, falling for the second year in a row after four years of growth. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 4M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, olive oil production reduced to $12.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 15%. Global production peaked at $13.9B in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of olive oil production was Spain (1.8M tons), accounting for 50% of total volume. Moreover, olive oil production in Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Tunisia (353K tons), fivefold. Turkey (228K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 6.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Spain totaled -1.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Tunisia (+6.3% per year) and Turkey (+1.0% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Olive Oil And Its Fractions

In 2022, purchases abroad of olive oil and its fractions decreased by -92.7% to 139K tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. In general, imports faced a precipitous shrinkage. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when imports increased by 19%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 2.1M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, olive oil imports shrank significantly to $642M in 2022. Overall, imports saw a abrupt setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 22%. Global imports peaked at $7.5B in 2021, and then reduced notably in the following year.

Imports By Country

Japan was the largest importing country with an import of about 51K tons, which recorded 36% of total imports. It was distantly followed by South Korea (17K tons), mixing up a 12% share of total imports. Taiwan (Chinese) (6K tons), Colombia (5.4K tons), Iran (3.6K tons), the United Arab Emirates (3.5K tons), Argentina (3.4K tons), the Dominican Republic (2.3K tons), Singapore (2.3K tons) and Norway (2.1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to olive oil imports into Japan stood at +4.4%. At the same time, Argentina (+51.0%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+13.7%), Iran (+8.3%), South Korea (+7.0%), Colombia (+5.3%), the Dominican Republic (+2.4%), Singapore (+1.5%) and Norway (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Argentina emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +51.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, the United Arab Emirates (-3.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Japan (+34 p.p.), South Korea (+11 p.p.), Taiwan (Chinese) (+4.2 p.p.), Colombia (+3.6 p.p.), Iran (+2.5 p.p.), Argentina (+2.4 p.p.), the United Arab Emirates (+2.2 p.p.) and the Dominican Republic (+1.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Japan ($253M) constitutes the largest market for imported olive oil and its fractions worldwide, comprising 39% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by South Korea ($76M), with a 12% share of global imports. It was followed by Taiwan (Chinese), with a 5.6% share.

In Japan, olive oil imports expanded at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: South Korea (+10.7% per year) and Taiwan (Chinese) (+16.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average olive oil import price stood at $4,613 per ton in 2022, jumping by 18% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.8%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 26%. Global import price peaked at $4,703 per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Taiwan (Chinese) ($5,950 per ton), while Iran ($3,399 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Olive Oil And Its Fractions

In 2022, overseas shipments of olive oil and its fractions decreased by -83.9% to 293K tons, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a drastic downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 2.1M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, olive oil exports shrank remarkably to $1.1B in 2022. In general, exports showed a abrupt curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when exports increased by 23% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $7.3B in 2021, and then dropped rapidly in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Tunisia (198K tons) represented the major exporter of olive oil and its fractions, comprising 68% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Syrian Arab Republic (52K tons) and Argentina (25K tons), together committing a 26% share of total exports. Palestine (9.6K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Tunisia increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Syrian Arab Republic (+16.8%), Argentina (+6.0%) and Palestine (+5.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Syrian Arab Republic emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +16.8% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Tunisia, Syrian Arab Republic, Argentina and Palestine increased by +58, +17, +7.4 and +2.9 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Tunisia ($765M) remains the largest olive oil supplier worldwide, comprising 72% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Syrian Arab Republic ($129M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Argentina, with a 9.3% share.

In Tunisia, olive oil exports expanded at an average annual rate of +8.8% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Syrian Arab Republic (+15.0% per year) and Argentina (+8.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average olive oil export price amounted to $3,629 per ton, declining by -9.6% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, recorded a mild expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 28%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $4,656 per ton in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Palestine ($4,415 per ton), while Syrian Arab Republic ($2,507 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tunisia (+4.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform