Paint and Varnish Market

The global market for paints and varnishes is expected to show a positive consumption trend over the next eight years, with a forecasted CAGR of +3.1% in volume and +5.1% in value from 2022 to 2030. China leads in both consumption and production, while Germany and the United States are key exporters. Import and export volumes are stable, with slight fluctuations in prices. Overall, the market is projected to continue its growth trajectory in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for paints and varnishes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 57M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $229.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Paints and Varnishes

In 2022, the amount of paints and varnishes consumed worldwide stood at 45M tons, flattening at the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 48M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global paint and varnish market size shrank to $154.3B in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $159.9B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (15M tons) remains the largest paint and varnish consuming country worldwide, accounting for 34% of total volume. Moreover, paint and varnish consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Brazil (4.4M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (4.4M tons), with a 9.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +3.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+8.8% per year) and the United States (+2.2% per year).

In value terms, China ($48.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($23.2B). It was followed by Turkey.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China totaled +3.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+2.2% per year) and Turkey (+0.7% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of paint and varnish per capita consumption in 2022 were Canada (33 kg per 1000 persons), South Korea (22 kg per 1000 persons) and Brazil (20 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Canada (with a CAGR of +10.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Paints and Varnishes

In 2022, approx. 45M tons of paints and varnishes were produced worldwide; remaining relatively unchanged against the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 48M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, paint and varnish production shrank slightly to $152.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 14% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $188.7B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of paint and varnish production was China (15M tons), accounting for 34% of total volume. Moreover, paint and varnish production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (4.6M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Brazil (4.4M tons), with a 10% share.

In China, paint and varnish production increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+1.8% per year) and Brazil (+8.8% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Paints and Varnishes

In 2022, global imports of paints and varnishes fell to 5.6M tons, dropping by -3.1% against 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 8%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 5.8M tons, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, paint and varnish imports expanded modestly to $25.3B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

Germany (268K tons), Canada (239K tons), France (238K tons), Belgium (224K tons), Poland (211K tons), the Netherlands (209K tons), Russia (197K tons), China (184K tons), Mexico (166K tons), the UK (163K tons), Spain (155K tons) and Turkey (130K tons) represented roughly 42% of total imports in 2022. Austria (124K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest paint and varnish importing markets worldwide were China ($1.5B), Canada ($1.3B) and Germany ($1.3B), with a combined 16% share of global imports. France, Belgium, Poland, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, Spain, the UK, Turkey and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +5.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average paint and varnish import price amounted to $4,484 per ton, growing by 5.8% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 9.2%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($8,187 per ton), while Austria ($3,366 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+4.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Paints and Varnishes

In 2022, global exports of paints and varnishes amounted to 5.7M tons, remaining stable against the year before. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 6.6%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, paint and varnish exports expanded slightly to $25.8B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Germany (827K tons), distantly followed by Italy (417K tons), the United Arab Emirates (311K tons), the Netherlands (301K tons), France (262K tons) and the United States (259K tons) were the main exporters of paints and varnishes, together committing 42% of total exports. The following exporters - the UK (241K tons), China (220K tons), Spain (217K tons), Poland (207K tons), Belgium (206K tons), Sweden (144K tons) and Turkey (135K tons) - together made up 24% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +17.1%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($4.1B), the United States ($2.9B) and Italy ($1.9B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 34% share of global exports. The Netherlands, Belgium, France, the UK, Spain, China, Poland, Sweden, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Among the main exporting countries, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +15.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average paint and varnish export price stood at $4,554 per ton in 2022, rising by 1.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 9.9%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($11,345 per ton), while the United Arab Emirates ($1,384 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+8.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform