Phosphatic Fertilizer Market

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global phosphatic fertilizer market from 2022 to 2030. Key points include the expected consumption trends, market volume, and value projections, production statistics, import and export trends, as well as insights into the major players and countries in the market. From rising demand for phosphatic fertilizers to the fluctuations in prices and volumes, the article offers a detailed overview of the market dynamics over the past decade and forecasts for the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for phosphatic fertilizer worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 33M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $11.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Phosphatic Fertilizers

In 2022, consumption of phosphatic fertilizers increased by 3.3% to 30M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Over the period under review, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 5.4%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 31M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global phosphatic fertilizer market size was estimated at $9.1B in 2022, remaining stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, showed a slight shrinkage. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $10.3B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Brazil (8.6M tons), India (4.6M tons) and Indonesia (1.9M tons), together accounting for 51% of global consumption. Israel, China, Vietnam, Mexico, Bangladesh, Egypt, Belarus and Morocco lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Morocco (with a CAGR of +9.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($2.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($859M). It was followed by Bangladesh.

In Brazil, the phosphatic fertilizer market decreased by an average annual rate of -1.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (-1.3% per year) and Bangladesh (+9.6% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of phosphatic fertilizer per capita consumption was registered in Israel (192 kg per person), followed by Belarus (67 kg per person), Brazil (40 kg per person) and Morocco (14 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of phosphatic fertilizer was estimated at 3.8 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the phosphatic fertilizer per capita consumption in Israel amounted to -1.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Belarus (+1.9% per year) and Brazil (-0.2% per year).

Consumption By Type

Superphosphates (25M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 85% of total volume. Moreover, superphosphates exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates (4.5M tons), sixfold.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the volume of superphosphates consumption was relatively modest.

In value terms, superphosphates ($7.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates ($1.5B).

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of superphosphates market amounted to -1.3%.

Production

World Production of Phosphatic Fertilizers

In 2022, production of phosphatic fertilizers was finally on the rise to reach 26M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year declining trend. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a mild slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 2.5%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 29M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, phosphatic fertilizer production contracted to $7.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw a pronounced decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $10.6B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were India (4.7M tons), Brazil (4.4M tons) and China (2.8M tons), together comprising 46% of global production. Israel, Morocco, Vietnam, Egypt, Mexico, Belarus, Tunisia, Argentina, Poland and Lebanon lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Argentina (with a CAGR of +5.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Type

Superphosphates (23M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, accounting for 89% of total volume. Moreover, superphosphates exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates (2.9M tons), eightfold.

For superphosphates, production contracted by an average annual rate of -1.4% over the period from 2012-2022.

In value terms, superphosphates ($6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates ($1.4B).

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of superphosphates production totaled -4.3%.

Imports

World Imports of Phosphatic Fertilizers

In 2022, the amount of phosphatic fertilizers imported worldwide shrank modestly to 9.7M tons, which is down by -2.9% on 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 37% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 10M tons, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

In value terms, phosphatic fertilizer imports soared to $4B in 2022. In general, imports, however, showed a noticeable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 104%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

Brazil was the main importing country with an import of around 4.2M tons, which finished at 43% of total imports. Indonesia (1,673K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 17% share, followed by Bangladesh (8.9%) and the United States (4.6%). Malaysia (307K tons), Australia (276K tons), Paraguay (231K tons) and France (192K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to phosphatic fertilizer imports into Brazil stood at +9.6%. At the same time, Australia (+9.8%), Bangladesh (+8.2%), the United States (+6.4%) and Paraguay (+6.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Australia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +9.8% from 2012-2022. Malaysia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Indonesia (-1.6%) and France (-3.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Brazil (+21 p.p.) and Bangladesh (+3.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while France and Indonesia saw its share reduced by -1.8% and -9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Brazil ($1.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported phosphatic fertilizers worldwide, comprising 39% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Bangladesh ($703M), with an 18% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 7.6% share.

In Brazil, phosphatic fertilizer imports increased at an average annual rate of +9.8% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Bangladesh (+12.0% per year) and the United States (+10.0% per year).

Imports By Type

Superphosphates represented the key type of phosphatic fertilizers in the world, with the volume of imports amounting to 7.4M tons, which was approx. 76% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates (2.3M tons), achieving a 24% share of total imports.

Superphosphates was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +3.4% from 2012 to 2022. Phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Superphosphates (+5.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates saw its share reduced by -5.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, superphosphates ($3.5B) constitutes the largest type of phosphatic fertilizers imported worldwide, comprising 88% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates ($485M), with a 12% share of global imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of superphosphates imports totaled +4.6%.

Import Prices By Type

The average phosphatic fertilizer import price stood at $408 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 36% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a slight expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, phosphatic fertilizer import price increased by +102.0% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 49%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was superphosphates ($471 per ton), while the price for phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates amounted to $208 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by superphosphate (+1.1%).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average phosphatic fertilizer import price amounted to $408 per ton, surging by 36% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated mild growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, phosphatic fertilizer import price increased by +102.0% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 49% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Bangladesh ($809 per ton), while Malaysia ($142 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Bangladesh (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Phosphatic Fertilizers

In 2022, the amount of phosphatic fertilizers exported worldwide declined to 5.5M tons, dropping by -11.9% on the year before. Overall, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 6.7M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, phosphatic fertilizer exports skyrocketed to $3.3B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, posted a tangible expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 82% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (1.2M tons), Morocco (1.1M tons) and Israel (0.9M tons) was the key exporter of phosphatic fertilizers in the world, achieving 59% of total export. It was distantly followed by Egypt (276K tons) and Tunisia (257K tons), together constituting a 9.7% share of total exports. Spain (208K tons), Bulgaria (174K tons), Lebanon (141K tons), Vietnam (118K tons), Russia (114K tons), the Netherlands (103K tons) and Argentina (93K tons) took a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Argentina (with a CAGR of +24.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest phosphatic fertilizer supplying countries worldwide were Morocco ($824M), China ($574M) and Israel ($504M), together comprising 58% of global exports. Egypt, Tunisia, Bulgaria, Lebanon, Russia, Spain, Vietnam, the Netherlands and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Argentina, with a CAGR of +25.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Superphosphates was the key type of phosphatic fertilizers in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 4.8M tons, which was near 86% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates (766K tons), mixing up a 14% share of total exports.

Superphosphates experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports. At the same time, phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates (+2.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +2.2% from 2012-2022. Phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates (+3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while superphosphates saw its share reduced by -3% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, superphosphates ($2.8B) remains the largest type of phosphatic fertilizers supplied worldwide, comprising 85% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates ($478M), with a 15% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of superphosphates exports stood at +3.0%.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average phosphatic fertilizer export price amounted to $590 per ton, growing by 59% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a perceptible expansion. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates ($624 per ton), while the average price for exports of superphosphates totaled $585 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by phosphatic fertilizers other than superphosphates (+6.2%).

Export Prices By Country

The average phosphatic fertilizer export price stood at $590 per ton in 2022, rising by 59% against the previous year. Overall, the export price showed a perceptible increase. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Bulgaria ($830 per ton), while Spain ($328 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+9.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform