Poppy Seed Market

The global poppy seed market is projected to experience growth in both volume and value over the next decade, with India leading in consumption and Turkey and the Czech Republic as key producers. The market is forecasted to see gradual growth in the near future, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Poppy seed production, consumption, imports, and exports have all shown notable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period, with import prices varying by country. Overall, the poppy seed market is expected to expand steadily over the next eight years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for poppy seed worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 142K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $421M (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Poppy Seed

In 2022, approx. 138K tons of poppy seed were consumed worldwide; picking up by 11% against the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global poppy seed market value rose markedly to $345M in 2022, picking up by 7.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

India (32K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of poppy seed consumption, comprising approx. 23% of total volume. Moreover, poppy seed consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the Netherlands (12K tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Turkey (12K tons), with an 8.5% share.

In India, poppy seed consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+18.1% per year) and Turkey (-3.3% per year).

In value terms, India ($83M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Turkey ($31M). It was followed by Australia.

In India, the poppy seed market expanded at an average annual rate of +9.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (-4.5% per year) and Australia (+6.2% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of poppy seed per capita consumption in 2022 were Croatia (989 kg per 1000 persons), the Netherlands (704 kg per 1000 persons) and Austria (398 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +41.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Poppy Seed

In 2022, global production of poppy seed rose markedly to 140K tons, surging by 7.4% against 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 17%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by modest growth of the harvested area and a mild increase in yield figures.

In value terms, poppy seed production dropped remarkably to $389M in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +24.8% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 51% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $466M in 2021, and then contracted sharply in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Turkey (35K tons), the Czech Republic (24K tons) and Spain (16K tons), together comprising 53% of global production. The Netherlands, China, Australia, India, France, Hungary, Croatia, Slovakia, Afghanistan and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Slovakia (with a CAGR of +26.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average poppy seed yield surged to 1.3 tons per ha in 2022, rising by 24% against the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. The global yield peaked at 1.4 tons per ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2022, approx. 104K ha of poppy seed were harvested worldwide; with a decrease of -13.1% on 2021 figures. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the harvested area increased by 44% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 143K ha. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the global poppy seed harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Poppy Seed

In 2022, overseas purchases of poppy seed were finally on the rise to reach 95K tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year declining trend. In general, imports recorded modest growth. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, poppy seed imports soared to $249M in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 84% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $250M in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, India (25K tons), distantly followed by Poland (14K tons), the Netherlands (7.3K tons), Russia (6.8K tons), the United States (6.5K tons), Austria (5.4K tons) and Germany (5.2K tons) were the key importers of poppy seed, together achieving 73% of total imports. The Czech Republic (4.2K tons), Slovakia (2.6K tons), Hungary (2.4K tons), Ukraine (2.2K tons) and Malaysia (1.6K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Malaysia (with a CAGR of +17.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($82M) constitutes the largest market for imported poppy seed worldwide, comprising 33% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Poland ($26M), with a 10% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 7.6% share.

In India, poppy seed imports expanded at an average annual rate of +10.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Poland (+14.4% per year) and the United States (+11.8% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average poppy seed import price amounted to $2,616 per ton, picking up by 3.6% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, poppy seed import price decreased by -13.6% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the average import price increased by 53% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $3,028 per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was India ($3,306 per ton), while the Netherlands ($1,662 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Czech Republic (+6.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Poppy Seed

In 2022, overseas shipments of poppy seed were finally on the rise to reach 98K tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 99K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, poppy seed exports surged to $268M in 2022. In general, total exports indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 83% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $281M in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

The Czech Republic (27K tons) and Turkey (23K tons) represented the main exporters of poppy seed in 2022, finishing at near 27% and 24% of total exports, respectively. China (9K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Spain (7.4K tons), Poland (5.9K tons), the Netherlands (4.4K tons) and France (4.4K tons). All these countries together took approx. 32% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +12.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest poppy seed supplying countries worldwide were Turkey ($91M), the Czech Republic ($63M) and China ($24M), with a combined 67% share of global exports.

Among the main exporting countries, China, with a CAGR of +19.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average poppy seed export price stood at $2,747 per ton in 2022, increasing by 9.5% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average export price increased by 62% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $3,149 per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Turkey ($3,891 per ton), while France ($1,849 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+6.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform