Solar Cells and Light-Emitting Diodes Market

The global market for solar cells and light-emitting diodes is expected to experience steady growth over the next eight years, with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% in consumption volume and +11.3% in market value by 2030. Thailand leads in consumption, while China, the United States, and other countries also play significant roles. Production and export trends are analyzed, with China being the major exporter.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for solar cells and light-emitting diodes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 16B units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +11.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $723.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Solar Cells and Light-Emitting Diodes

In 2022, after six years of growth, there was significant decline in consumption of solar cells and light-emitting diodes, when its volume decreased by -37.8% to 12B units. In general, consumption, however, enjoyed strong growth. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 19B units, and then fell remarkably in the following year.

The value of the market for solar cells and light-emitting diodes worldwide shrank markedly to $307.1B in 2022, dropping by -67.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, posted a resilient expansion. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $941.5B, and then declined remarkably in the following year.

Consumption By Country

Thailand (5.3B units) remains the largest solar cells and light-emitting diodes consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 43% of total volume. Moreover, solar cells and light-emitting diodes consumption in Thailand exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (959M units), fivefold. The United States (508M units) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.2% share.

In Thailand, solar cells and light-emitting diodes consumption increased at an average annual rate of +56.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: China (+4.0% per year) and the United States (+3.4% per year).

In value terms, Thailand ($95.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Russia ($32.2B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Thailand stood at +56.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Russia (+0.6% per year) and the United States (+3.4% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of solar cells and light-emitting diodes per capita consumption was registered in Thailand (75 units per person), followed by the Netherlands (17 units per person), Australia (11 units per person) and Spain (8.7 units per person), while the world average per capita consumption of solar cells and light-emitting diodes was estimated at 1.5 units per person.

In Thailand, solar cells and light-emitting diodes per capita consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +56.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the Netherlands (+19.4% per year) and Australia (+9.1% per year).

Production

World Production of Solar Cells and Light-Emitting Diodes

In 2022, production of solar cells and light-emitting diodes decreased by -26.5% to 15B units for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. Overall, production, however, posted a buoyant increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 134%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 21B units, and then dropped remarkably in the following year.

In value terms, solar cells and light-emitting diodes production stood at $195.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 14% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $207.5B. From 2017 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (6.1B units), Thailand (5.3B units) and Malaysia (578M units), together accounting for 78% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Thailand (with a CAGR of +59.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Solar Cells and Light-Emitting Diodes

After five years of growth, overseas purchases of solar cells and light-emitting diodes decreased by -67.2% to 6.9B units in 2022. Overall, imports, however, enjoyed a prominent expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 238% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 21B units, and then shrank markedly in the following year.

In value terms, solar cells and light-emitting diodes imports rose notably to $84.3B in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +68.3% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 43% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of solar cells and light-emitting diodes imports in 2022 were the Netherlands (888M units), China (625M units), Hong Kong SAR (600M units), Singapore (566M units), Japan (448M units), Vietnam (398M units), Germany (398M units), India (333M units), Australia (292M units), Thailand (246M units) and the United States (237M units), together amounting to 73% of total import. The following importers - Pakistan (155M units) and Poland (149M units) - each reached a 4.4% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +74.9%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($14B), the United States ($9.8B) and China ($8B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 38% of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, India, with a CAGR of +32.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for solar cells and light-emitting diodes amounted to $12 per unit, rising by 223% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a deep reduction. Global import price peaked at $25 per unit in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was India ($42 per unit), while Singapore ($1.8 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+7.7%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Solar Cells and Light-Emitting Diodes

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in shipments abroad of solar cells and light-emitting diodes, when their volume decreased by -55.2% to 10B units. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a strong increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 173% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 22B units, and then reduced rapidly in the following year.

In value terms, solar cells and light-emitting diodes exports contracted to $60.3B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $69.9B, and then dropped in the following year.

Exports By Country

China represented the major exporter of solar cells and light-emitting diodes in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 5.7B units, which was approx. 57% of total exports in 2022. Hong Kong SAR (1,105M units) ranks second in terms of the total exports with an 11% share, followed by Singapore (8.4%), the Netherlands (6%) and Malaysia (5.8%). The following exporters - Thailand (262M units) and South Korea (218M units) - together made up 4.8% of total exports.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +14.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Singapore (+43.1%), Thailand (+30.7%), Malaysia (+19.8%), the Netherlands (+19.2%), South Korea (+13.3%) and Hong Kong SAR (+1.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Singapore emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +43.1% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China, Singapore, Malaysia, the Netherlands and Thailand increased by +18, +7.8, +3.2, +3.1 and +2.1 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($28.5B) remains the largest solar cells and light-emitting diodes supplier worldwide, comprising 47% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Malaysia ($4.7B), with a 7.8% share of global exports. It was followed by Hong Kong SAR, with a 6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +5.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Malaysia (+6.4% per year) and Hong Kong SAR (+3.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for solar cells and light-emitting diodes stood at $6 per unit in 2022, surging by 93% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a abrupt downturn. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $14 per unit in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($15 per unit), while Singapore ($1.1 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hong Kong SAR (+2.2%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform