Sorghum Market

The global sorghum market is expected to continue growing in the next eight years driven by increasing demand worldwide. Market performance is forecast to expand in volume and value terms with a projected CAGR of +1.3% and +3.0% respectively. The top consuming countries in 2022 were China, Nigeria, and Sudan, while the United States, Nigeria, and Sudan were the top producers. China dominated sorghum imports with an 84% share in 2022, while the United States was the key exporter with a 58% share. Overall, the market is showing a positive trend with steady growth in consumption, production, imports, and exports.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for sorghum worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 72M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $36.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Sorghum

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in consumption of sorghum, which increased by 4.9% to 65M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 69M tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global sorghum market size reached $28.9B in 2022, with an increase of 2.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $33.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (13M tons), Nigeria (6.8M tons) and Sudan (5.3M tons), together accounting for 39% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +17.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Mexico ($7.4B), China ($4.3B) and Nigeria ($2.8B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 50% share of the global market.

Among the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +20.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of sorghum per capita consumption in 2022 were Sudan (116 kg per person), Burkina Faso (91 kg per person) and Niger (81 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +17.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Sorghum

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded growth in production of sorghum, which increased by 3.4% to 64M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 10%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 68M tons. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by mild growth of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, sorghum production declined rapidly to $24.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a slight curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 50% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $36.4B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (11M tons), Nigeria (6.8M tons) and Sudan (5.2M tons), together comprising 36% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Sudan (with a CAGR of +8.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average sorghum yield expanded notably to 1.6 tons per ha in 2022, picking up by 5.7% compared with the previous year. In general, the yield showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the yield increased by 7.6% against the previous year. The global yield peaked at 1.6 tons per ha in 2015; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Harvested Area

The global sorghum harvested area declined to 41M ha in 2022, reducing by -2.2% compared with the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the harvested area increased by 11%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to sorghum production reached the peak figure at 45M ha in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Sorghum

In 2022, overseas purchases of sorghum increased by 9.2% to 12M tons, rising for the third year in a row after four years of decline. Overall, imports recorded a resilient increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 95% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 13M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, sorghum imports soared to $4.4B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a resilient expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 113%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China dominates imports structure, finishing at 10M tons, which was near 84% of total imports in 2022. Mexico (313K tons), Japan (265K tons) and Spain (223K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the sorghum imports, with a CAGR of +61.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Spain (+17.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Mexico (-14.0%) and Japan (-16.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China increased by +83 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($3.7B) constitutes the largest market for imported sorghum worldwide, comprising 85% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Japan ($103M), with a 2.3% share of global imports. It was followed by Mexico, with a 2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China amounted to +66.2%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Japan (-14.2% per year) and Mexico (-14.1% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average sorghum import price amounted to $367 per ton, with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 26%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Japan ($386 per ton) and China ($369 per ton), while Mexico ($281 per ton) and Spain ($363 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+3.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Sorghum

In 2022, shipments abroad of sorghum increased by 0.5% to 11M tons, rising for the third year in a row after four years of decline. In general, exports showed strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 102% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 13M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, sorghum exports skyrocketed to $3.6B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded strong growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 100% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the United States (6.2M tons) was the key exporter of sorghum, creating 58% of total exports. Australia (2.2M tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 21% share, followed by Argentina (16%).

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to sorghum exports from the United States stood at +13.7%. At the same time, Australia (+26.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Australia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +26.8% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Argentina (-4.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United States (+25 p.p.) and Australia (+17 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Argentina (-35.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, the United States ($2.2B) remains the largest sorghum supplier worldwide, comprising 61% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Australia ($730M), with a 20% share of global exports.

In the United States, sorghum exports increased at an average annual rate of +15.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Australia (+30.0% per year) and Argentina (-2.0% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average sorghum export price amounted to $334 per ton, growing by 14% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated temperate growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, sorghum export price increased by +53.1% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 34%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($350 per ton), while Argentina ($274 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Argentina (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform