Tin Market

The global tin market is expected to continue an upward trend in both consumption and value terms from 2022 to 2030. Consumption volume is forecast to reach 606K tons by the end of 2030, with China, Singapore, and Indonesia leading in consumption. Production remained relatively stable at 447K tons in 2022, with China, Indonesia, and Peru being the top producers. Imports and exports also saw significant growth, with Singapore, the United States, and China leading in imports, while Indonesia remains the largest tin exporter. Average tin prices varied among countries, with the Netherlands and Bolivia having the highest export prices in 2022.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for tin worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 606K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $14B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Tin

After three years of decline, consumption of tin increased by 33% to 581K tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global tin market value skyrocketed to $11.8B in 2022, with an increase of 15% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (190K tons), Singapore (135K tons) and Indonesia (66K tons), together accounting for 67% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Singapore (with a CAGR of +32.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($4.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Singapore ($1.8B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Singapore (+29.2% per year) and the United States (+6.4% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of tin per capita consumption was registered in Singapore (23 kg per person), followed by Malaysia (0.4 kg per person), South Korea (0.2 kg per person) and Indonesia (0.2 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of tin was estimated at 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the tin per capita consumption in Singapore stood at +31.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Malaysia (-4.1% per year) and South Korea (-2.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Tin

In 2022, the amount of tin produced worldwide shrank slightly to 447K tons, therefore, remained relatively stable against the year before. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 7.4%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 489K tons. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, tin production contracted markedly to $8.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 65%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $10.1B, and then fell dramatically in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (169K tons), Indonesia (144K tons) and Peru (28K tons), together comprising 76% of global production. Malaysia, Bolivia, Brazil and Singapore lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 15%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Brazil (with a CAGR of +2.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Tin

In 2022, the amount of tin imported worldwide soared to 356K tons, jumping by 45% against 2021. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +81.3% against 2019 indices. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, tin imports soared to $7.6B in 2022. Overall, imports saw a notable expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 92% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

Singapore was the main importing country with an import of around 140K tons, which reached 39% of total imports. The United States (33K tons) held a 9.2% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by China (8.7%), Japan (6.6%) and Germany (5.1%). South Korea (13K tons), the Netherlands (13K tons), India (13K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (8.2K tons), Spain (6.7K tons) and Italy (5.9K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Singapore was also the fastest-growing in terms of the tin imports, with a CAGR of +18.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Italy (+5.7%), the Netherlands (+5.6%), India (+4.7%) and Spain (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. China and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the United States (-1.2%), Japan (-1.5%), Taiwan (Chinese) (-1.6%) and South Korea (-2.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Singapore increased by +30 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($1.1B), China ($1B) and Japan ($791M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 39% share of global imports. Germany, South Korea, the Netherlands, Singapore, India, Taiwan (Chinese), Spain and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +10.7%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average tin import price stood at $21,404 per ton in 2022, falling by -20.3% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 55% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $26,853 per ton, and then dropped significantly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($35,037 per ton), while Singapore ($3,139 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+5.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Tin

In 2022, the amount of tin exported worldwide reduced to 223K tons, with a decrease of -13.4% compared with the year before. In general, exports showed a pronounced reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 32%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 277K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, tin exports shrank to $6.9B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, posted a temperate increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 115% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $7.1B, and then contracted in the following year.

Exports By Country

Indonesia was the main exporting country with an export of around 78K tons, which resulted at 35% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Peru (25K tons), Singapore (16K tons), Bolivia (15K tons), Malaysia (15K tons), Belgium (14K tons), Brazil (12K tons), the Netherlands (11K tons) and China (11K tons), together making up a 54% share of total exports. Thailand (4.5K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to tin exports from Indonesia stood at -2.6%. At the same time, China (+20.0%), Brazil (+6.8%), the Netherlands (+6.6%) and Belgium (+6.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +20.0% from 2012-2022. Bolivia and Peru experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Singapore (-5.5%), Malaysia (-8.9%) and Thailand (-13.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+4.2 p.p.), Belgium (+3.6 p.p.), Brazil (+3.2 p.p.), the Netherlands (+2.9 p.p.), Peru (+2.1 p.p.) and Bolivia (+1.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Indonesia (-1.7 p.p.), Singapore (-3 p.p.), Thailand (-4.7 p.p.) and Malaysia (-6.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Indonesia ($2.4B) remains the largest tin supplier worldwide, comprising 34% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Peru ($728M), with an 11% share of global exports. It was followed by Singapore, with a 7.5% share.

In Indonesia, tin exports expanded at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Peru (+2.7% per year) and Singapore (-1.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average tin export price amounted to $31,064 per ton, rising by 12% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, tin export price increased by +82.3% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 63%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($34,381 per ton) and Bolivia ($33,244 per ton), while Thailand ($27,619 per ton) and Peru ($28,853 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+5.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform