Toilet Paper Market

The article analyzes the global toilet paper market, forecasting an upward consumption trend with a CAGR of +3.6% in volume and +5.5% in value from 2022 to 2030. Key findings include fluctuations in consumption levels, highest consuming countries, market size, production trends, imports, and exports. The United States showed significant growth in consumption and production, while China led in production volume. Import and export prices also saw notable growth trends, with varying prices by country.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for toilet paper worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 51M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $115.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Toilet Paper

Global toilet paper consumption reduced slightly to 38M tons in 2022, falling by -2.8% against 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 7.6%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 40M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

The global toilet paper market size fell slightly to $75.4B in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $76.5B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (6M tons), the United States (3.1M tons) and India (2.3M tons), together comprising 30% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +8.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest toilet paper markets worldwide were China ($13.5B), the United States ($7.7B) and India ($4B), with a combined 33% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +8.3%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of toilet paper per capita consumption in 2022 were the UK (11 kg per person), Germany (10 kg per person) and the United States (9.3 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +7.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Toilet Paper

In 2022, global toilet paper production declined modestly to 39M tons, reducing by -2.8% against the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 7.3%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 40M tons in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

In value terms, toilet paper production reached $76.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +4.8% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 15%. Global production peaked at $88.2B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (6.3M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of toilet paper production, accounting for 16% of total volume. Moreover, toilet paper production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (3M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (2.3M tons), with a 5.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +4.8%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+8.7% per year) and India (+5.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Toilet Paper

In 2022, supplies from abroad of toilet paper decreased by -2.1% to 2M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after four years of growth. In general, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 7.1%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 2.3M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, toilet paper imports soared to $4.1B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

Germany (195K tons), the United States (164K tons), the Netherlands (125K tons), France (102K tons), Hong Kong SAR (90K tons), Denmark (63K tons), the Czech Republic (63K tons), Canada (62K tons), Belgium (62K tons), Australia (52K tons), Switzerland (51K tons) and Norway (49K tons) represented roughly 54% of total imports in 2022. Austria (48K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +9.6%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($381M), the United States ($315M) and the Netherlands ($238M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 23% of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +7.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average toilet paper import price amounted to $2,062 per ton, growing by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Norway ($2,709 per ton), while Hong Kong SAR ($1,477 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+3.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Toilet Paper

In 2022, overseas shipments of toilet paper decreased by -1.4% to 2.1M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. In general, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 7.9% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 2.5M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, toilet paper exports skyrocketed to $4.6B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (265K tons), Germany (184K tons), Poland (131K tons), Italy (123K tons), France (104K tons), Sweden (98K tons), El Salvador (90K tons), Canada (87K tons), Austria (75K tons), Spain (71K tons), the United States (69K tons) and Belgium (60K tons) was the main exporter of toilet paper in the world, generating 64% of total export. Slovakia (59K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +4.6%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest toilet paper supplying countries worldwide were China ($705M), Germany ($393M) and Italy ($265M), together accounting for 30% of global exports.

Among the main exporting countries, China, with a CAGR of +8.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average toilet paper export price stood at $2,139 per ton in 2022, rising by 19% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($2,812 per ton), while France ($1,830 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+7.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform