Walnut Market

The global walnut market is forecasted to grow with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% in volume and +3.5% in value from 2022 to 2030. China leads in both consumption and production of walnuts, with significant growth rates. The market is driven by increasing demand worldwide, with forecasts pointing towards steady growth in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for walnuts worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $13.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Walnuts

Global walnut consumption expanded notably to 4M tons in 2022, picking up by 10% on the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

The global walnut market value amounted to $10.4B in 2022, picking up by 5.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $11.1B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (1.3M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of walnut consumption, comprising approx. 33% of total volume. Moreover, walnut consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (571K tons), twofold. Iran (391K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 9.9% share.

In China, walnut consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+4.2% per year) and Iran (+3.2% per year).

In value terms, China ($3.5B), the United States ($1.8B) and Turkey ($1.1B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 61% share of the global market. Mexico, Iran, Burkina Faso, Chile, the United Arab Emirates, Greece, Ukraine and India lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

Among the main consuming countries, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +28.6%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of walnut per capita consumption in 2022 were the United Arab Emirates (6.4 kg per person), Burkina Faso (6.1 kg per person) and Greece (5.8 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +34.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Walnuts

In 2022, the amount of walnuts produced worldwide expanded rapidly to 3.9M tons, increasing by 11% against 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a perceptible expansion of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, walnut production declined modestly to $8.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +3.8% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 36% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $13.7B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of walnut production was China (1.4M tons), accounting for 36% of total volume. Moreover, walnut production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (682K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Iran (355K tons), with a 9% share.

In China, walnut production increased at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+3.2% per year) and Iran (+2.2% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average walnut yield expanded to 3.1 tons per ha, increasing by 1.5% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, the yield saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 4.3%. The global yield peaked at 3.2 tons per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of walnuts production worldwide was estimated at 1.3M ha, growing by 8.9% on the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the harvested area increased by 9.8%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to walnut production attained the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports

World Imports of Walnuts

In 2022, approx. 423K tons of walnuts were imported worldwide; dropping by -3.6% on 2021 figures. Overall, imports, however, enjoyed a prominent expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when imports increased by 45%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 457K tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, walnut imports amounted to $1.1B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 30%. Global imports peaked at $1.1B in 2019; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Turkey (70K tons) and the United Arab Emirates (68K tons) were the largest importers of walnutsaround the world, together accounting for near 33% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Iran (39K tons), Italy (31K tons), Mexico (31K tons) and India (31K tons), together creating a 31% share of total imports. The following importers - Iraq (16K tons), Morocco (16K tons), Kyrgyzstan (13K tons), Algeria (12K tons), Spain (11K tons), Germany (10K tons) and Russia (10K tons) - together made up 21% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Kyrgyzstan (with a CAGR of +206.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United Arab Emirates ($195M), Turkey ($160M) and Mexico ($126M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 45% of global imports. Iran, Italy, Morocco, India, Iraq, Spain, Algeria, Germany, Kyrgyzstan and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.

Kyrgyzstan, with a CAGR of +194.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average walnut import price stood at $2,554 per ton in 2022, increasing by 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a noticeable decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 15%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $4,362 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($4,018 per ton), while Kyrgyzstan ($710 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Iraq (+3.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Walnuts

In 2022, global walnut exports dropped to 390K tons, with a decrease of -3.6% on the previous year's figure. In general, total exports indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -20.3% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 47% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 489K tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, walnut exports declined to $1.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when exports increased by 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at $1.4B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the three major exporters of walnuts, namely the United States, Chile and China, represented more than two-thirds of total export. France (20K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 5.1% share, followed by Turkey (4.9%). Mexico (13K tons) and Kyrgyzstan (9.6K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +123.8%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest walnut supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($404M), Chile ($261M) and China ($188M), with a combined 77% share of global exports.

China, with a CAGR of +125.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average walnut export price amounted to $2,831 per ton, increasing by 2.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a pronounced shrinkage. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the average export price increased by 15%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $4,365 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($4,600 per ton), while Kyrgyzstan ($364 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+1.9%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform