Africa: Grain Market 2024

Grain Market Size in Africa

After two years of growth, the African grain market decreased by X% to $X in 2022. The market value increased at an average annual rate of X% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level at $X in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Grain Production in Africa

In value terms, grain production rose remarkably to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, saw resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by X% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X. From 2021 to 2022, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Ethiopia (X tons), Nigeria (X tons) and Egypt (X tons), with a combined X% share of total production. South Africa, Tanzania, Mali, Morocco, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Ghana, Niger, Madagascar and Guinea lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Ghana (with a CAGR of X%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The average grain yield declined to X tons per ha in 2022, flattening at 2021 figures. Over the period under review, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the yield increased by X% against the previous year. The level of yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2021, and then reduced in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of cereal grains production in Africa fell slightly to X ha, flattening at 2021. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of X% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of X% against the previous year. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

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Grain Exports

Exports in Africa

In 2022, shipments abroad of cereal grains increased by X% to X tons, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. In general, exports enjoyed a perceptible increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of X%. The volume of export peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, grain exports surged to $X in 2022. Overall, exports posted a moderate increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of X% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

South Africa prevails in exports structure, amounting to X tons, which was approx. X% of total exports in 2022. Tanzania (X tons) held a X% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Zambia (X%). Uganda (X tons) and Cote d'Ivoire (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to grain exports from South Africa stood at X%. At the same time, Cote d'Ivoire (X%) and Tanzania (X%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Cote d'Ivoire emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of X% from 2012-2022. Uganda experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Zambia (X%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. South Africa (X p.p.) and Tanzania (X p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Zambia saw its share reduced by X% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest grain supplier in Africa, comprising X% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Zambia ($X), with a X% share of total exports. It was followed by Tanzania, with a X% share.

In South Africa, grain exports increased at an average annual rate of X% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Zambia (X% per year) and Tanzania (X% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Africa stood at $X per ton in 2022, with an increase of X% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Zambia ($X per ton), while Cote d'Ivoire ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Cote d'Ivoire (X%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Grain Imports

Imports in Africa

Grain imports stood at X tons in 2022, picking up by X% compared with 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of X% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of X% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, grain imports rose rapidly to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated a moderate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by X% against 2017 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by X% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

Algeria (X tons) and Egypt (X tons) represented the major importers of cereal grains in 2022, accounting for approx. X% and X% of total imports, respectively. Morocco (X tons) took the next position in the ranking, distantly followed by Libya (X tons) and Tunisia (X tons). All these countries together held near X% share of total imports. Sudan (X tons), Kenya (X tons), Nigeria (X tons), South Africa (X tons), Ethiopia (X tons) and Senegal (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Kenya (with a CAGR of X%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Egypt ($X), Algeria ($X) and Morocco ($X) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising X% of total imports. Nigeria, Tunisia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Libya, Sudan, South Africa and Senegal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X%.

Among the main importing countries, Ethiopia, with a CAGR of X%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The import price in Africa stood at $X per ton in 2022, with an increase of X% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of X% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Nigeria ($X per ton), while Libya ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ethiopia (X%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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