Aluminium Bar Market

The global market for aluminium bars, rods, and profiles is poised for growth, with consumption and production volumes expected to increase over the next decade. Despite fluctuations in certain years, the overall trend points to steady expansion. China leads in production and exports, while countries like the United States, Brazil, and Vietnam show significant growth rates in consumption and imports. With import and export prices on the rise, the aluminium market is likely to see continued growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for aluminium bars, rods and profiles worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 30M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $149.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Aluminium Bars, Rods And Profiles

In 2022, after ten years of growth, there was significant decline in consumption of aluminium bars, rods and profiles, when its volume decreased by -5.2% to 23M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 25M tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

The global aluminium bar market value contracted to $100.3B in 2022, which is down by -5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $105.5B, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (5.5M tons), the United States (3M tons) and Brazil (1.6M tons), together accounting for 43% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Brazil (with a CAGR of +16.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($18.2B), the United States ($15.9B) and Japan ($9.5B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 44% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +7.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of aluminium bar per capita consumption in 2022 were Italy (14 kg per person), Japan (11 kg per person) and Germany (10 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Brazil (with a CAGR of +15.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Aluminium Bars, Rods And Profiles

In 2022, global production of aluminium bars, rods and profiles reduced to 24M tons, declining by -5.4% on the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 15%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 25M tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, aluminium bar production contracted to $111.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated measured growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +20.5% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 31%. Global production peaked at $137.7B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (6.4M tons) remains the largest aluminium bar producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 27% of total volume. Moreover, aluminium bar production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (2.8M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Brazil (1.6M tons), with a 6.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +4.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+6.0% per year) and Brazil (+16.1% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Aluminium Bars, Rods And Profiles

In 2022, overseas purchases of aluminium bars, rods and profiles increased by 1.1% to 4.3M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 21%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, aluminium bar imports soared to $23.6B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +69.5% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 39% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (730K tons), distantly followed by the United States (366K tons) and France (275K tons) were the main importers of aluminium bars, rods and profiles, together achieving 32% of total imports. The following importers - Belgium (147K tons), the Netherlands (142K tons), Poland (140K tons), the Czech Republic (139K tons), Mexico (125K tons), Italy (112K tons), Canada (111K tons), Austria (108K tons), the UK (103K tons) and Vietnam (87K tons) - together made up 28% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Vietnam (with a CAGR of +20.1%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest aluminium bar importing markets worldwide were Germany ($4B), the United States ($2.1B) and France ($1.7B), with a combined 33% share of global imports. The UK, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Poland, Mexico, Belgium, Italy, Canada, Austria and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Vietnam, with a CAGR of +20.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average aluminium bar import price amounted to $5,477 per ton, rising by 21% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.3%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($7,900 per ton), while Vietnam ($3,983 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+9.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Aluminium Bars, Rods And Profiles

In 2022, global aluminium bar exports contracted slightly to 4.9M tons, approximately reflecting the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 21%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 5M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, aluminium bar exports soared to $26.8B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +71.2% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 42%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (948K tons), distantly followed by Turkey (445K tons), Germany (400K tons), Spain (373K tons) and Italy (242K tons) represented the largest exporters of aluminium bars, rods and profiles, together comprising 49% of total exports. Poland (169K tons), the United States (167K tons), Belgium (144K tons), Austria (136K tons), Greece (133K tons), Canada (100K tons), the Netherlands (89K tons) and Vietnam (86K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Vietnam (+21.3%), Poland (+12.2%), Turkey (+11.5%), Greece (+10.3%), Spain (+7.3%), Germany (+4.9%), Italy (+3.2%) and Belgium (+2.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +21.3% from 2012-2022. Canada, the United States and the Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Austria (-2.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Turkey, Spain, Germany, Poland and Greece increased by +5.5, +3.1, +2.2, +2.2 and +1.5 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest aluminium bar supplying countries worldwide were China ($3.7B), Germany ($2.8B) and Turkey ($2.4B), with a combined 33% share of global exports. Spain, Italy, Poland, the United States, Belgium, Austria, Greece, the Netherlands, Canada and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

Among the main exporting countries, Vietnam, with a CAGR of +22.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average aluminium bar export price amounted to $5,497 per ton, surging by 21% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($7,558 per ton), while China ($3,917 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform