Cheese and Curd Market

Driven by increasing demand for cheese and curd worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% over the same period. In 2022, consumption, production, and export of cheese and curd saw fluctuations, but overall, show positive growth rates. The article provides detailed insights into the major consuming, producing, and exporting countries, as well as the types of cheese and curd in demand.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cheese and curd worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 61M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $340.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cheese and Curd

In 2022, consumption of cheese and curd decreased by -2.8% to 49M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 6.9%. Global consumption peaked at 51M tons in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

The global cheese and curd market value declined slightly to $240.8B in 2022, remaining constant against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +34.4% against 2014 indices. Global consumption peaked at $244.5B in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (6.1M tons), India (6M tons) and Pakistan (3.4M tons), with a combined 31% share of global consumption. Germany, Indonesia, Italy, France, South Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, the UK, Poland, Russia and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +16.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Turkey ($38B), the United States ($27.1B) and Italy ($15.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 33% of the global market.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +15.7%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of cheese and curd per capita consumption in 2022 were Italy (39 kg per person), Germany (30 kg per person) and South Korea (27 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +14.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cheese and Curd

In 2022, production of cheese and curd decreased by -1.4% to 50M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the production volume increased by 6.6%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 51M tons in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, cheese and curd production dropped slightly to $219.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $252.6B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (6.3M tons), India (6M tons) and Pakistan (3.4M tons), with a combined 32% share of global production. Germany, Indonesia, Italy, France, Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Netherlands, South Korea, Poland, Turkey and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +15.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Cheese and Curd

In 2022, overseas purchases of cheese and curd decreased by -6.9% to 7.2M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 6.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 7.7M tons in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, cheese and curd imports rose rapidly to $38.6B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (891K tons), followed by Italy (535K tons), France (458K tons), Belgium (440K tons), the UK (411K tons), the Netherlands (411K tons) and Spain (328K tons) were the largest importers of cheese and curd, together creating 48% of total imports. Japan (274K tons), the United States (189K tons), South Korea (155K tons), Sweden (154K tons), China (145K tons) and Greece (140K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +14.1%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($5.4B), France ($2.7B) and Italy ($2.6B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 28% share of global imports. The UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, the United States, Japan, Sweden, South Korea, China and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

China, with a CAGR of +15.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed represented the key type of cheese and curd in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 3.8M tons, which was approx. 53% of total imports in 2022. Unripened or uncured cheese (2.1M tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 30% share, followed by processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (9.1%) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (7.1%).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main imported products, was attained by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (with a CAGR of +6.0%), while imports for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed ($22.8B) constitutes the largest type of cheese and curd imported worldwide, comprising 59% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by unripened or uncured cheese ($9B), with a 23% share of global imports. It was followed by processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered), with an 8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed imports totaled +2.2%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: unripened or uncured cheese (+6.0% per year) and processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (+0.1% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average cheese and curd import price amounted to $5,368 per ton, growing by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was cheese, blue-veined (not grated, powdered or processed) ($7,800 per ton), while the price for unripened or uncured cheese ($4,215 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed (+1.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average cheese and curd import price stood at $5,368 per ton in 2022, rising by 13% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($8,310 per ton), while the Netherlands ($4,451 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+1.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cheese and Curd

For the eleventh consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of cheese and curd, which increased by 2.4% to 7.7M tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 5.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, cheese and curd exports expanded remarkably to $41.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 14%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Germany (1.3M tons) and the Netherlands (1M tons) represented roughly 31% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by France (666K tons), Italy (566K tons), the United States (454K tons) and Denmark (410K tons), together creating a 27% share of total exports. The following exporters - New Zealand (340K tons), Belarus (324K tons), Belgium (305K tons), Poland (280K tons), Ireland (255K tons), the UK (175K tons) and Austria (162K tons) - together made up 24% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Belarus (with a CAGR of +9.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($6.2B), the Netherlands ($5.5B) and Italy ($4.7B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 40% of global exports. France, the United States, Denmark, New Zealand, Belgium, Ireland, Belarus, Poland, the UK and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Belarus, with a CAGR of +8.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed was the key type of cheese and curd in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 3.9M tons, which was near 50% of total exports in 2022. Unripened or uncured cheese (2.4M tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 32% share, followed by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (8.9%) and processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (8.5%).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (with a CAGR of +9.5%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed ($23.2B) remains the largest type of cheese and curd supplied worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by unripened or uncured cheese ($10.3B), with a 25% share of global exports. It was followed by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered, with a 9.4% share.

For cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed, exports expanded at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: unripened or uncured cheese (+6.3% per year) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (+9.6% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average cheese and curd export price amounted to $5,320 per ton, with an increase of 9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 11%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was cheese, blue-veined (not grated, powdered or processed) ($7,935 per ton), while the average price for exports of unripened or uncured cheese ($4,218 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed (+1.3%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average cheese and curd export price stood at $5,320 per ton in 2022, surging by 9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the average export price increased by 11% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($8,219 per ton), while Belarus ($4,033 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by New Zealand (+2.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform