Dried Or Salted Fish Market

The article discusses the projected growth in the global dried or salted fish market from 2022 to 2030, with anticipated increases in both volume and value. Key findings include insights on consumption trends, production volumes, export and import statistics, and top exporting and importing countries. The analysis highlights notable rates of growth in consumption and production, as well as fluctuations in import and export volumes and prices over the period from 2012 to 2022.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for dried or salted fish worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.5M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $15.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Dried Or Salted Fish

In 2022, consumption of dried or salted fish increased by 0.5% to 2.4M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after three years of decline. Overall, consumption, however, showed a slight decline. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 2.9M tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global dried or salted fish market size was estimated at $12.4B in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a slight decline. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $15B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Indonesia (405K tons), China (304K tons) and the Philippines (213K tons), with a combined 38% share of global consumption. India, the United States, Portugal, Japan, Russia, Germany, Angola and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Angola (with a CAGR of +4.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($2.1B), Indonesia ($1.4B) and the Philippines ($949M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 36% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +4.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of dried or salted fish per capita consumption was registered in Portugal (9.2 kg per person), followed by the Philippines (1.9 kg per person), Indonesia (1.5 kg per person) and Angola (1.3 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of dried or salted fish was estimated at 0.3 kg per person.

In Portugal, dried or salted fish per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the Philippines (-1.9% per year) and Indonesia (-2.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Dried Or Salted Fish

In 2022, the amount of dried or salted fish produced worldwide contracted slightly to 2.3M tons, approximately mirroring the previous year. Overall, production recorded a slight decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 5.6% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 2.8M tons. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, dried or salted fish production reduced to $12.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production saw a slight contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 15% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $14.2B. From 2018 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Indonesia (408K tons), China (264K tons) and the Philippines (213K tons), together accounting for 38% of global production. India, the United States, Japan, Norway, Germany, Russia, Angola, Portugal and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Angola (with a CAGR of +17.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Dried Or Salted Fish

In 2022, global imports of dried or salted fish expanded rapidly to 406K tons, growing by 6.8% against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a pronounced downturn. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 12%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 548K tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, dried or salted fish imports totaled $2.2B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, showed a mild descent. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $2.6B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

Portugal (59K tons) and China (58K tons) represented roughly 29% of total imports in 2022. The Netherlands (30K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Sweden (27K tons), Malaysia (22K tons), Russia (19K tons) and Spain (18K tons). All these countries together took near 28% share of total imports. The Dominican Republic (14K tons), the United States (12K tons), Germany (12K tons), Italy (12K tons), Bangladesh (10K tons) and Rwanda (9.5K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +43.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Portugal ($506M), Sweden ($260M) and the Netherlands ($247M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 46% of global imports. Spain, Italy, China, Germany, the United States, the Dominican Republic, Russia, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Rwanda lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

Among the main importing countries, China, with a CAGR of +38.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average dried or salted fish import price stood at $5,485 per ton in 2022, surging by 3.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($10,442 per ton), while Rwanda ($1,045 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Dried Or Salted Fish

In 2022, global exports of dried or salted fish declined modestly to 329K tons, therefore, remained relatively stable against the year before. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a perceptible setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 466K tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, dried or salted fish exports reached $2.1B in 2022. Overall, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 8.6%. The global exports peaked at $2.2B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Norway (61K tons), distantly followed by Vietnam (30K tons), the Netherlands (27K tons), Sweden (27K tons), Iceland (20K tons) and China (19K tons) were the main exporters of dried or salted fish, together achieving 56% of total exports. The following exporters - Thailand (15K tons), India (12K tons), Canada (9.9K tons), Spain (9.8K tons), Germany (9.7K tons), Denmark (8.8K tons) and Portugal (7.7K tons) - together made up 22% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to dried or salted fish exports from Norway stood at -7.0%. At the same time, the Netherlands (+20.9%), Vietnam (+11.9%), India (+6.4%) and Denmark (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +20.9% from 2012-2022. Canada, Germany and Spain experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, China (-2.6%), Iceland (-2.8%), Sweden (-4.0%), Portugal (-4.5%) and Thailand (-13.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the Netherlands (+7.3 p.p.), Vietnam (+6.9 p.p.), Iceland (+6.1 p.p.) and India (+2.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Thailand (-9.5 p.p.) and Norway (-11.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Norway ($565M) remains the largest dried or salted fish supplier worldwide, comprising 27% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Sweden ($261M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Vietnam, with a 9.6% share.

In Norway, dried or salted fish exports declined by an average annual rate of -3.9% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Sweden (-1.4% per year) and Vietnam (+13.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average dried or salted fish export price amounted to $6,412 per ton, increasing by 5.9% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($11,218 per ton), while India ($1,546 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Iceland (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform