Electric Locomotive Market

The electric locomotive market is expected to decline in consumption volume and value over the period from 2022 to 2030. Bangladesh leads in consumption and production, while China is the key player in exports. There has been fluctuation in consumption and production levels, with notable growth rates in certain countries. Import and export prices have shown varying trends over the years.

Market Forecast

The electric locomotive market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -0.2% for the eight-year period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to depress the market volume to 12M units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $779B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Electric Locomotives

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was significant decline in consumption of electric locomotives, when its volume decreased by -38% to 12M units. In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a significant increase. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 20M units, and then fell dramatically in the following year.

The global electric locomotive market size soared to $673.2B in 2022, with an increase of 24% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

Bangladesh (12M units) constituted the country with the largest volume of electric locomotive consumption, comprising approx. 99% of total volume.

In Bangladesh, electric locomotive consumption increased at an average annual rate of +109.2% over the period from 2012-2022.

In value terms, Bangladesh ($17M) led the market, alone.

In Bangladesh, the electric locomotive market expanded at an average annual rate of +63.4% over the period from 2012-2022.

In Bangladesh, electric locomotive per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +107.6% over the period from 2012-2022.

Production

World Production of Electric Locomotives

Global electric locomotive production skyrocketed to 107K units in 2022, increasing by 36% against 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. As a result, production attained the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, electric locomotive production amounted to $548B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the production volume increased by 7.9% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $602.8B. From 2016 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (44K units), Brazil (37K units) and Bangladesh (7.6K units), with a combined 83% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Brazil (with a CAGR of +15.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Electric Locomotives

In 2022, approx. 12M units of electric locomotives were imported worldwide; which is down by -38.3% compared with 2021. In general, imports, however, recorded significant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 3,095,535%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 20M units, and then fell rapidly in the following year.

In value terms, electric locomotive imports totaled $388M in 2022. Overall, imports continue to indicate a perceptible shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 86%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $625M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of electric locomotive imports in 2022 were Bangladesh (12M units), together resulting at 99.9% of total import.

Bangladesh was also the fastest-growing in terms of the electric locomotives imports, with a CAGR of +467.7% from 2012 to 2022. While the share of Bangladesh (+99 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Bangladesh ($17M) constitutes the largest market for imported electric locomotives worldwide.

In Bangladesh, electric locomotive imports expanded at an average annual rate of +388.0% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Country

The average electric locomotive import price stood at $32 per unit in 2022, jumping by 82% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate a sharp contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 18,390% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure at $962,810 per unit in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

As there is only one major supplying country, the average price level is determined by prices for Bangladesh.

From 2012 to 2022, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Bangladesh amounted to -14.0% per year.

Exports

World Exports of Electric Locomotives

In 2022, the amount of electric locomotives exported worldwide reduced to 173 units, waning by -7.5% on the previous year's figure. Overall, exports continue to indicate a abrupt shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 78% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 794 units in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, electric locomotive exports shrank to $126M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports saw a abrupt decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 224%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $807M. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

China was the key exporting country with an export of around 123 units, which recorded 71% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Australia (44 units), comprising a 25% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to electric locomotive exports from China stood at -9.9%. Australia (-8.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Australia (+1.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while China saw its share reduced by -3.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, China ($120M) remains the largest electric locomotive supplier worldwide, comprising 95% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Australia ($46K), with less than 0.1% share of global exports.

In China, electric locomotive exports decreased by an average annual rate of -11.6% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average electric locomotive export price amounted to $730,832 per unit, shrinking by -2.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a perceptible slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 an increase of 83%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $1,015,836 per unit. From 2016 to 2022, the average export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was China ($972,313 per unit), while Australia stood at $1,045 per unit.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (-1.9%).

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform