Fresh Beef Carcase Market

The global fresh beef and veal market is expected to witness a positive growth trajectory from 2022 to 2030, with a projected increase in both consumption and production. Key players such as China, the United States, and India are leading in terms of market size and value. The market is forecasted to have a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of +3.8% in volume and +5.8% in value. China remains the largest consumer and producer of fresh beef carcases, followed by India and the United States. Italy, Japan, and the United States have the highest levels of per capita consumption. Imports and exports are also seeing steady growth, with France, Germany, and the Netherlands being major players in exports, while Italy, the Netherlands, and the United States are leading in imports. Overall, the market is expected to continue its growth pattern in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for fresh or chilled carcases of beef and veal worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 53M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $340.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Beef And Veal

Global fresh beef carcase consumption fell slightly to 39M tons in 2022, which is down by -1.9% against the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 42M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global fresh beef carcase market revenue contracted modestly to $217.4B in 2022, approximately mirroring the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $224.1B. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (7.5M tons) remains the largest fresh beef carcase consuming country worldwide, accounting for 19% of total volume. Moreover, fresh beef carcase consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (2.9M tons), threefold. The United States (2.6M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.6% share.

In China, fresh beef carcase consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +7.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+6.3% per year) and the United States (-1.9% per year).

In value terms, China ($34.7B), the United States ($23.9B) and India ($18.4B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 35% share of the global market.

Among the main consuming countries, India, with a CAGR of +11.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of fresh beef carcase per capita consumption in 2022 were Italy (16 kg per person), Japan (13 kg per person) and the United States (7.7 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Beef And Veal

In 2022, the amount of fresh or chilled carcases of beef and veal produced worldwide contracted slightly to 39M tons, falling by -2% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 9.2% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 42M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, fresh beef carcase production declined to $219.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $233.3B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (7.5M tons) remains the largest fresh beef carcase producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 19% of total volume. Moreover, fresh beef carcase production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (2.9M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States (2.5M tons), with a 6.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +7.4%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+6.3% per year) and the United States (-2.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Beef And Veal

In 2022, purchases abroad of fresh or chilled carcases of beef and veal increased by 2.7% to 1.4M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 6% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 1.6M tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, fresh beef carcase imports expanded notably to $7.9B in 2022. Overall, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 19%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

Italy (238K tons) and the Netherlands (226K tons) represented roughly 34% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Germany (111K tons), the United States (106K tons), France (90K tons), Greece (75K tons) and Portugal (63K tons), together generating a 32% share of total imports. Spain (44K tons), the United Arab Emirates (42K tons), Uzbekistan (38K tons), Bosnia and Herzegovina (30K tons), the UK (27K tons) and Belgium (23K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +134.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fresh beef carcase importing markets worldwide were Italy ($1.5B), the Netherlands ($1B) and the United States ($801M), with a combined 42% share of global imports. Germany, France, Greece, Portugal, Spain, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, the UK, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Uzbekistan, with a CAGR of +150.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average fresh beef carcase import price amounted to $5,737 per ton, growing by 6.3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($7,538 per ton), while Uzbekistan ($4,399 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+6.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Fresh Or Chilled Carcases Of Beef And Veal

In 2022, overseas shipments of fresh or chilled carcases of beef and veal increased by 0.1% to 1.4M tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. In general, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 3.8% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 1.6M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, fresh beef carcase exports rose rapidly to $8B in 2022. Over the period under review, exports saw modest growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 20%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from France (167K tons), Germany (156K tons), Poland (153K tons), Spain (153K tons) and the Netherlands (150K tons), together finishing at 55% of total export. Mexico (97K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Pakistan (71K tons), Belgium (70K tons) and Italy (65K tons). All these countries together took approx. 21% share of total exports. Austria (40K tons), the UK (38K tons), Ireland (37K tons) and Canada (35K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +11.2%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fresh beef carcase supplying countries worldwide were the Netherlands ($933M), France ($926M) and Spain ($836M), together comprising 34% of global exports. Poland, Germany, Mexico, Belgium, Canada, Pakistan, Italy, Austria, Ireland and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 52%.

Canada, with a CAGR of +14.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average fresh beef carcase export price stood at $5,592 per ton in 2022, growing by 8.2% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 20%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($11,066 per ton), while the UK ($4,486 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+4.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform