Fresh Pork Cut Market

The article discusses the growing demand for fresh or chilled hams, shoulders, and cuts of pig meat worldwide, with a forecasted increase in market volume and value over the next eight years. In 2022, consumption slightly decreased but is expected to accelerate with a projected CAGR of +2.7% in volume and +5.1% in value by 2030. China leads in both consumption and production, while Mexico shows the highest growth rates in market size. Imports and exports also saw positive trends, with varying price fluctuations among major importing and exporting countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 28M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $99.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Fresh Or Chilled Hams, Shoulders And Cuts Of Pig Meat

In 2022, consumption of fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat decreased by -0.4% to 22M tons, falling for the third year in a row after six years of growth. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 26M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global fresh pork cut market value totaled $66.5B in 2022, growing by 1.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $71.9B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (6.2M tons) remains the largest fresh pork cut consuming country worldwide, accounting for 27% of total volume. Moreover, fresh pork cut consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (2.4M tons), threefold. Russia (1.1M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.9% share.

In China, fresh pork cut consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+4.1% per year) and Russia (+4.0% per year).

In value terms, China ($13.5B), India ($8.3B) and Indonesia ($5.8B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 41% share of the global market. Italy, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Spain, Bangladesh, Poland, France, Germany and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Mexico, with a CAGR of +11.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of fresh pork cut per capita consumption in 2022 were Italy (18 kg per person), Spain (16 kg per person) and Poland (13 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +9.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Fresh Or Chilled Hams, Shoulders And Cuts Of Pig Meat

In 2022, production of fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat decreased by -1.3% to 22M tons, falling for the third consecutive year after six years of growth. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 25M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by slight growth of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, fresh pork cut production fell to $69.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the production volume increased by 20%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $74.7B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (6.2M tons) remains the largest fresh pork cut producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 28% of total volume. Moreover, fresh pork cut production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (2.4M tons), threefold. Russia (1.1M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China totaled +3.1%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+4.1% per year) and Russia (+4.0% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Fresh Or Chilled Hams, Shoulders And Cuts Of Pig Meat

In 2022, purchases abroad of fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat increased by 9.3% to 2.3M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 22%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

In value terms, fresh pork cut imports skyrocketed to $5B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Mexico (1M tons) represented the main importer of fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat, comprising 44% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Italy (527K tons), Poland (185K tons) and Germany (106K tons), together committing a 36% share of total imports. The United States (64K tons), the UK (54K tons), France (47K tons) and the Czech Republic (41K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +10.5%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Mexico ($2.1B), Italy ($1.1B) and Poland ($378M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 72% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, Mexico, with a CAGR of +11.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average fresh pork cut import price amounted to $2,207 per ton, rising by 12% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 an increase of 17% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $2,566 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($3,013 per ton), while the UK ($1,880 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+1.3%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Fresh Or Chilled Hams, Shoulders And Cuts Of Pig Meat

In 2022, shipments abroad of fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat increased by less than 0.1% to 1.9M tons, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. In general, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 13%. The global exports peaked at 1.9M tons in 2017; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, fresh pork cut exports rose remarkably to $4.1B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 11%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at $4.7B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

The United States was the major exporting country with an export of about 627K tons, which reached 33% of total exports. Denmark (291K tons) held a 16% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (13%), Spain (10%), Germany (9.3%) and Canada (7%). France (53K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

The United States was also the fastest-growing in terms of the fresh or chilled hams, shoulders and cuts of pig meat exports, with a CAGR of +6.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Canada (+5.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Spain experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Denmark (-1.6%), the Netherlands (-1.8%), Germany (-3.0%) and France (-6.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the United States and Canada increased by +15 and +2.8 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($1.3B) remains the largest fresh pork cut supplier worldwide, comprising 32% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Denmark ($578M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 13% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States stood at +7.1%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Denmark (-3.5% per year) and the Netherlands (-2.6% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average fresh pork cut export price amounted to $2,165 per ton, increasing by 9.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a slight decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the average export price increased by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $2,555 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Canada ($2,491 per ton) and Spain ($2,291 per ton), while France ($1,886 per ton) and Denmark ($1,984 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+0.5%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform