Green Coffee Market

The global green coffee market is projected to see growth in both volume and value terms from 2022 to 2030. Consumption reached 11M tons in 2022, with top consuming countries being the United States, Brazil, and Germany. Production stood at 11M tons in 2022, with Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia being key producers. Import and export volumes also saw increases, with the United States and Germany leading in imports, while Brazil and Colombia were top exporters. Average green coffee prices and yields varied among countries, reflecting overall trends in the market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for coffee (green) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 13M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $49.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Green Coffee

In 2022, approx. 11M tons of coffee (green) were consumed worldwide; growing by 4.7% against 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 12M tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global green coffee market revenue skyrocketed to $35.8B in 2022, increasing by 24% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (1.4M tons), Brazil (1M tons) and Germany (962K tons), together accounting for 30% of global consumption. Italy, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia, Central African Republic, Spain, Guinea, Ethiopia, France and Switzerland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Guinea (with a CAGR of +102.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($6.1B), Germany ($3.6B) and Brazil ($2.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 34% share of the global market. Italy, Japan, Switzerland, Vietnam, Ethiopia, Indonesia, France, Spain, Central African Republic and Guinea lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

Guinea, with a CAGR of +94.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of green coffee per capita consumption was registered in Central African Republic (61 kg per person), followed by Switzerland (23 kg per person), Guinea (19 kg per person) and Germany (12 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of green coffee was estimated at 1.4 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the green coffee per capita consumption in Central African Republic amounted to +44.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Switzerland (+4.3% per year) and Guinea (+97.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Green Coffee

In 2022, global production of coffee (green) stood at 11M tons, flattening at 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 12%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 12M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a modest increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, green coffee production expanded to $25.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, showed a slight slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $30.7B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Brazil (3.2M tons), Vietnam (2M tons) and Indonesia (795K tons), with a combined 54% share of global production. Colombia, Ethiopia, Uganda, Honduras, Peru, India, Central African Republic, Guinea, Guatemala and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Central African Republic (with a CAGR of +46.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2022, the global average yield of coffee (green) expanded to 892 kg per ha, with an increase of 4.4% against 2021. Over the period under review, the yield, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the yield increased by 11% against the previous year. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 1.1 tons per ha. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the average green coffee yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of coffee (green) production worldwide shrank to 12M ha, falling by -3.2% against the previous year's figure. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the harvested area increased by 10% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 13M ha, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Green Coffee

In 2022, approx. 7.8M tons of coffee (green) were imported worldwide; with an increase of 5.3% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, green coffee imports surged to $32B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +74.4% against 2019 indices. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The United States (1.4M tons) and Germany (1.2M tons) represented the major importers of coffee (green) in 2022, reaching approx. 18% and 15% of total imports, respectively. Italy (673K tons) took an 8.6% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Belgium (4.9%) and Japan (4.9%). The following importers - Spain (321K tons), the Netherlands (232K tons), France (213K tons), Canada (203K tons), Switzerland (199K tons), Russia (195K tons), the UK (177K tons) and South Korea (176K tons) - together made up 22% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +10.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($7.1B), Germany ($4.8B) and Italy ($2.3B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 44% of global imports. Japan, Belgium, Switzerland, Canada, Spain, the Netherlands, France, South Korea, the UK and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

In terms of the main importing countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +10.9%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average green coffee import price stood at $4,076 per ton in 2022, increasing by 39% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.0%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($5,422 per ton), while Russia ($2,934 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Green Coffee

Global green coffee exports totaled 7.6M tons in 2022, leveling off at 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 19%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, green coffee exports soared to $28.9B in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +68.4% against 2019 indices. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Brazil (2.1M tons), distantly followed by Vietnam (1,353K tons), Colombia (625K tons), Indonesia (435K tons) and Honduras (354K tons) were the key exporters of coffee (green), together comprising 64% of total exports. Uganda (313K tons), Belgium (274K tons), Ethiopia (273K tons), India (270K tons), Peru (237K tons), Guatemala (194K tons), Germany (193K tons) and Nicaragua (156K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Uganda (with a CAGR of +7.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($8.5B) remains the largest green coffee supplier worldwide, comprising 29% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Colombia ($4B), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by Vietnam, with a 9.8% share.

In Brazil, green coffee exports increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Colombia (+7.6% per year) and Vietnam (-2.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average green coffee export price amounted to $3,783 per ton, rising by 33% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Colombia ($6,342 per ton), while Uganda ($1,821 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Guatemala (+3.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform