Malt Market

The global malt market is projected to see growth in consumption and value over the next eight years, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% and +4.4% respectively. Key findings include China as the largest consumer and producer, Brazil leading in imports, and Mexico having the highest import price. Additionally, the average import price rose by 11% in 2022, while global exports declined but still show stability and growth potential in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for malt worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 41M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $26.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Malt

Global malt consumption fell slightly to 35M tons in 2022, approximately reflecting 2021. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 5.1%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 35M tons in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

The global malt market value reached $18.7B in 2022, rising by 3.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the market value increased by 6.2%. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

China (10M tons) remains the largest malt consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 29% of total volume. Moreover, malt consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Brazil (2.4M tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (2.3M tons), with a 6.7% share.

In China, malt consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Brazil (+5.1% per year) and the United States (+1.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($4.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Brazil ($1.5B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Brazil (+5.0% per year) and the United States (+1.0% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of malt per capita consumption was registered in Belgium (49 kg per person), followed by Australia (22 kg per person), the UK (17 kg per person) and Germany (17 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of malt was estimated at 4.4 kg per person.

In Belgium, malt per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +8.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Australia (+2.7% per year) and the UK (-2.5% per year).

Production

World Production of Malt

In 2022, approx. 35M tons of malt were produced worldwide; waning by -2.4% compared with 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 6.5%. Global production peaked at 36M tons in 2021, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

In value terms, malt production rose to $17.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 7.4%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Production By Country

China (11M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of malt production, comprising approx. 30% of total volume. Moreover, malt production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (2.2M tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Pakistan (2M tons), with a 5.6% share.

In China, malt production increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+1.0% per year) and Pakistan (+7.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Malt

Global malt imports was estimated at 8M tons in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2021. Overall, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, malt imports expanded rapidly to $4.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Brazil (1.3M tons), distantly followed by Japan (460K tons), Vietnam (459K tons), Belgium (453K tons) and the United States (372K tons) represented the largest importers of malt, together committing 38% of total imports. The Netherlands (307K tons), Mexico (247K tons), Poland (236K tons), Thailand (216K tons), Germany (198K tons), Cambodia (182K tons), Italy (166K tons) and Nigeria (154K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to malt imports into Brazil stood at +4.7%. At the same time, Cambodia (+13.4%), Vietnam (+3.6%), Italy (+3.3%), Nigeria (+2.2%) and Poland (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Cambodia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +13.4% from 2012-2022. The United States, the Netherlands and Thailand experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-1.1%), Mexico (-1.8%), Belgium (-2.2%) and Germany (-3.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Brazil (+5 p.p.) and Cambodia (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Belgium (-2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Brazil ($827M) constitutes the largest market for imported malt worldwide, comprising 17% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Mexico ($307M), with a 6.3% share of global imports. It was followed by Japan, with a 5.8% share.

In Brazil, malt imports increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Mexico (+5.2% per year) and Japan (-2.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average malt import price stood at $605 per ton in 2022, rising by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global import price peaked at $612 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($1,242 per ton), while Nigeria ($450 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+7.1%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Malt

Global malt exports declined to 8.3M tons in 2022, waning by -4.7% compared with the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 8.7M tons, and then fell modestly in the following year.

In value terms, malt exports expanded remarkably to $4.7B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the twelve major exporters of malt, namely France, Belgium, Australia, Germany, Argentina, Canada, China, Uruguay, the Netherlands, the United States, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, represented more than two-thirds of total export.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +9.9%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Belgium ($566M), France ($519M) and Australia ($441M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 33% of global exports. Germany, Argentina, Canada, China, Uruguay, the Netherlands, the United States, Slovakia and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 50%.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +10.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average malt export price stood at $565 per ton in 2022, increasing by 20% against the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The global export price peaked at $573 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($695 per ton), while France ($461 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Argentina (+1.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform