MDF Market

The global medium density fibreboard (MDF) market is expected to see an upward consumption trend with a forecasted CAGR of +4.4% in volume and +5.6% in value from 2022 to 2030. China leads in both consumption and production of MDF, while the United States is a major importer. Medium density fibreboard of thickness over 9 mm is the most popular type in terms of both volume and value.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for MDF worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 144M cubic meters by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $76.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of MDF

In 2022, approx. 103M cubic meters of MDF were consumed worldwide; reducing by -9.5% compared with the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 113M cubic meters in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

The global MDF market value fell modestly to $49.8B in 2022, flattening at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $50.4B in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (48M cubic meters) remains the largest MDF consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 47% of total volume. Moreover, MDF consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Turkey (5.4M cubic meters), ninefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Brazil (4.4M cubic meters), with a 4.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (+3.3% per year) and Brazil (+1.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($22.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Turkey ($2.8B). It was followed by the United States.

In China, the MDF market remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Turkey (+2.1% per year) and the United States (+4.0% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of MDF per capita consumption was registered in Belarus (189 cubic meters per 1000 persons), followed by Poland (86 cubic meters per 1000 persons), Turkey (63 cubic meters per 1000 persons) and Thailand (41 cubic meters per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of MDF was estimated at 13 cubic meters per 1000 persons.

In Belarus, MDF per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +37.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Poland (+5.4% per year) and Turkey (+1.9% per year).

Production

World Production of MDF

In 2022, the amount of MDF produced worldwide dropped to 103M cubic meters, falling by -9.9% on 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 6.8%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 114M cubic meters in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, MDF production reduced modestly to $50.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $50.9B in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

China (50M cubic meters) constituted the country with the largest volume of MDF production, accounting for 49% of total volume. Moreover, MDF production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Turkey (6.2M cubic meters), eightfold. Brazil (5.2M cubic meters) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5% share.

In China, MDF production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (+4.8% per year) and Brazil (+3.5% per year).

Imports

World Imports of MDF

Global MDF imports contracted to 16M cubic meters in 2022, declining by -11.7% compared with the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 18M cubic meters in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, MDF imports expanded significantly to $9.5B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a moderate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +37.4% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 31% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (1.8M cubic meters), followed by the United Arab Emirates (1.1M cubic meters) were the major importers of MDF, together achieving 18% of total imports. Saudi Arabia (672K cubic meters), Italy (651K cubic meters), Japan (537K cubic meters), the UK (510K cubic meters), Vietnam (417K cubic meters), Belgium (409K cubic meters), the Netherlands (396K cubic meters), Egypt (392K cubic meters), Mexico (390K cubic meters), Poland (389K cubic meters) and Germany (389K cubic meters) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +14.9%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($1.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported MDF worldwide, comprising 17% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the UK ($525M), with a 5.5% share of global imports. It was followed by Italy, with a 3.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States stood at +11.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the UK (+8.0% per year) and Italy (+6.0% per year).

Imports By Type

Medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm was the key imported product with an import of about 10M cubic meters, which reached 64% of total imports. Medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness under 5 mm (3M cubic meters) took the second position in the ranking, followed by medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm (2.7M cubic meters). All these products together took approx. 36% share of total imports.

Medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm was also the fastest-growing in terms of imports, with a CAGR of +3.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness under 5 mm (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm (+4.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm (-4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm ($6B) constitutes the largest type of MDF imported worldwide, comprising 63% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm ($2B), with a 22% share of global imports.

For medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm, imports expanded at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm (+1.8% per year) and medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness under 5 mm (+3.4% per year).

Import Prices By Type

The average MDF import price stood at $597 per cubic meter in 2022, increasing by 19% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 19% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm ($752 per cubic meter), while the price for medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness under 5 mm ($505 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm (+2.8%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average MDF import price amounted to $597 per cubic meter, rising by 19% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 19%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($1,030 per cubic meter), while Saudi Arabia ($267 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+7.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of MDF

In 2022, global exports of MDF reduced to 16M cubic meters, shrinking by -14.1% compared with 2021 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 15%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 19M cubic meters, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, MDF exports dropped to $9.3B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 36%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $9.4B, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (2.3M cubic meters), Thailand (1.7M cubic meters) and Germany (1.6M cubic meters) was the largest exporter of MDF in the world, making up 35% of total export. It was distantly followed by Turkey (996K cubic meters) and Brazil (788K cubic meters), together creating an 11% share of total exports. Russia (651K cubic meters), Spain (609K cubic meters), Belgium (603K cubic meters), Canada (585K cubic meters), Poland (553K cubic meters), Chile (521K cubic meters), New Zealand (494K cubic meters) and Romania (480K cubic meters) held a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Brazil (with a CAGR of +22.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($1.2B), China ($1.1B) and Thailand ($665M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 31% share of global exports. Chile, Turkey, Canada, Belgium, Spain, Russia, Brazil, Poland, New Zealand and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

Brazil, with a CAGR of +24.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm (9.9M cubic meters) represented the main type of MDF, making up 62% of total exports. Medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness under 5 mm (3.1M cubic meters) held a 20% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm (18%).

Medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness under 5 mm (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm (+3.4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm saw its share reduced by -4.2% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm ($5.8B) remains the largest type of MDF supplied worldwide, comprising 63% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm ($1.9B), with a 21% share of global exports.

For medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm, exports increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm (+0.8% per year) and medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness under 5 mm (+3.4% per year).

Export Prices By Type

The average MDF export price stood at $581 per cubic meter in 2022, with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness from 5 to 9 mm ($668 per cubic meter), while the average price for exports of medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness under 5 mm ($489 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by medium density fibreboard (MDF) of thickness over 9 mm (+3.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average MDF export price amounted to $581 per cubic meter, increasing by 15% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.5%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Chile ($1,060 per cubic meter), while Thailand ($398 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Chile (+8.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform