Olive Market

The global olive market is expected to continue growing, with consumption and production trends analyzed for key global players such as Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and the United States. The market is projected to increase in both volume and value by 2030, with consumption levels fluctuating over recent years. Import and export trends have shown significant growth, with Portugal emerging as the largest exporter. The average olive yield and harvested area have shown steady growth, with prices fluctuating by country of origin. Overall, the market is expected to maintain a positive trend in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for olives worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 29M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $55.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Olives

In 2022, global olive consumption amounted to 24M tons, remaining relatively unchanged against 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 25M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global olive market size expanded slightly to $40.3B in 2022, growing by 2.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level at $41.3B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

Spain (8.2M tons) remains the largest olive consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 34% of total volume. Moreover, olive consumption in Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Greece (3.3M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Italy (2.2M tons), with a 9.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Spain totaled +7.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Greece (+1.8% per year) and Italy (-2.9% per year).

In value terms, the largest olive markets worldwide were Italy ($7.8B), Greece ($6.9B) and Spain ($6.6B), with a combined 53% share of the global market. Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Portugal and Syrian Arab Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

Algeria, with a CAGR of +11.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of olive per capita consumption in 2022 were Greece (313 kg per person), Spain (174 kg per person) and Tunisia (112 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Portugal (with a CAGR of +9.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Olives

In 2022, global production of olives stood at 24M tons, flattening at the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 25M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a moderate expansion of the harvested area and pronounced growth in yield figures.

In value terms, olive production amounted to $40.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 26% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $45.3B. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

Spain (8.2M tons) remains the largest olive producing country worldwide, accounting for 34% of total volume. Moreover, olive production in Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Greece (3.3M tons), twofold. Italy (2.2M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.3% share.

In Spain, olive production increased at an average annual rate of +7.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Greece (+1.8% per year) and Italy (-2.9% per year).

Yield

The global average olive yield totaled 2.3 tons per ha in 2022, approximately mirroring 2021 figures. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the yield increased by 28%. Over the period under review, the average olive yield hit record highs at 2.5 tons per ha in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

The global olive harvested area totaled 10M ha in 2022, approximately reflecting the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, the harvested area showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 4.1% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of 10M ha; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Imports

World Imports of Olives

Global olive imports fell to 95K tons in 2022, waning by -4.9% against the previous year. Overall, imports, however, posted a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 46% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 99K tons, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

In value terms, olive imports reduced modestly to $110M in 2022. In general, total imports indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +65.8% against 2017 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 46% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $111M, and then shrank in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Portugal (38K tons), distantly followed by Spain (24K tons), Italy (9.7K tons) and the United States (5.9K tons) represented the largest importers of olives, together creating 82% of total imports. The following importers - the Netherlands (3.9K tons), Poland (3.5K tons) and France (1.9K tons) - together made up 9.8% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +30.9%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Portugal ($24M), Italy ($19M) and Spain ($16M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 55% share of global imports.

Portugal, with a CAGR of +26.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average olive import price stood at $1,159 per ton in 2022, surging by 3.3% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, saw a noticeable downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $1,504 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($3,157 per ton), while Portugal ($649 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+5.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Olives

In 2022, the amount of olives exported worldwide dropped rapidly to 75K tons, with a decrease of -27.7% against the previous year's figure. Overall, exports, however, enjoyed a resilient expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 73% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 104K tons, and then fell significantly in the following year.

In value terms, olive exports declined significantly to $77M in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +24.2% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 28% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $92M, and then contracted significantly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Portugal represented the largest exporting country with an export of about 53K tons, which resulted at 70% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Spain (13K tons), making up an 18% share of total exports. The following exporters - Greece (2.4K tons) and the Netherlands (1.6K tons) - together made up 5.4% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to olive exports from Portugal stood at +16.2%. At the same time, the Netherlands (+36.4%) and Spain (+10.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +36.4% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Greece (-7.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Portugal (+42 p.p.), Spain (+6.1 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+2 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Greece saw its share reduced by -9.6% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, Portugal ($35M) remains the largest olive supplier worldwide, comprising 46% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Netherlands ($12M), with a 16% share of global exports. It was followed by Spain, with a 14% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Portugal stood at +12.7%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (+46.7% per year) and Spain (+1.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average olive export price amounted to $1,023 per ton, rising by 15% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, showed a pronounced contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average export price increased by 22%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $1,416 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($7,306 per ton), while Portugal ($673 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+7.6%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform