Transmission Shaft Market

The article discusses the increasing global demand for transmission shafts, cranks, bearing housings, gears, and chain, projecting a positive consumption trend over the period from 2022 to 2030. It provides detailed insights on market performance, with an expected CAGR of +2.2% in volume and +4.1% in value. The article highlights key consumption, production, import, and export statistics for various countries, with China and the United States emerging as significant players in the market. It also covers trends in import and export prices, showcasing variations among different products and countries. Overall, the article offers a comprehensive overview of the global market for transmission components.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 10M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $111.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Transmission Shaft

After two years of decline, consumption of transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain increased by 1% to 8.4M tons in 2022. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 8.7M tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global transmission shaft market revenue expanded slightly to $80.9B in 2022, surging by 1.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the market value increased by 4.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $88.4B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (1.6M tons), Mexico (1.1M tons) and the United States (920K tons), with a combined 43% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +9.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($12.1B), the United States ($10.9B) and Germany ($6.9B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 37% share of the global market. Mexico, Japan, Russia, Italy, Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo, the UK, South Korea and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

Among the main consuming countries, Mexico, with a CAGR of +8.5%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of transmission shaft per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (8.6 kg per person), Mexico (8.3 kg per person) and Italy (5.5 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +8.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Transmission Shaft

In 2022, global production of transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain fell slightly to 8.3M tons, approximately mirroring the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the production volume increased by 14%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 8.4M tons in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, transmission shaft production expanded slightly to $88.6B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the production volume increased by 15%. Global production peaked at $96.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

China (3.1M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of transmission shaft production, comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, transmission shaft production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (924K tons), threefold. Mexico (823K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +4.8%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Germany (-0.3% per year) and Mexico (+14.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Transmission Shaft

In 2022, supplies from abroad of transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain increased by 7.2% to 5M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, transmission shaft imports reached $56.6B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 20%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (715K tons), followed by Germany (456K tons) and Mexico (362K tons) represented the key importers of transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain, together making up 30% of total imports. Brazil (223K tons), Italy (203K tons), China (189K tons), Thailand (181K tons), Japan (172K tons), the UK (155K tons), France (144K tons), Canada (143K tons), Poland (134K tons) and Indonesia (108K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Thailand (with a CAGR of +12.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($8.5B), Germany ($4.4B) and China ($4.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 30% share of global imports. Mexico, Canada, Brazil, Italy, France, the UK, Japan, Poland, Indonesia and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

Among the main importing countries, Poland, with a CAGR of +6.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Cranks and crankshafts (1.5M tons) and gearboxes and speed changers (1.4M tons) represented roughly 58% of total imports in 2022. Flywheels and pulleys (712K tons) held a 14% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by bearing housings not incorporating ball or roller bearings, plain shaft bearings (9.4%) and chain; articulated link, roller, of iron or steel (8%). The following types - clutches and shaft couplings (197K tons) and iron or steel articulated link chain (182K tons) - each accounted for a 7.6% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key imported products, was attained by bearing housings incorporating ball or roller bearings (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while imports for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of imported transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain were gearboxes and speed changers ($20B), cranks and crankshafts ($13.5B) and bearing housings not incorporating ball or roller bearings, plain shaft bearings ($7.6B), with a combined 73% share of global imports. Flywheels and pulleys, clutches and shaft couplings, chain; articulated link, roller, of iron or steel, bearing housings incorporating ball or roller bearings and iron or steel articulated link chain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

In terms of the main imported products, bearing housings incorporating ball or roller bearings, with a CAGR of +4.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average transmission shaft import price amounted to $11,216 per ton, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 an increase of 6.2% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $12,085 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was clutches and shaft couplings ($18,174 per ton), while the price for chain; articulated link, roller, of iron or steel ($6,107 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by cranks and crankshafts (+1.9%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average transmission shaft import price amounted to $11,216 per ton, approximately mirroring the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 an increase of 6.2%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $12,085 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($21,769 per ton), while Thailand ($4,010 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+2.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Transmission Shaft

In 2022, shipments abroad of transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain increased by 4.7% to 4.9M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 28%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, transmission shaft exports rose slightly to $56.2B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 21%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

China was the key exporter of transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 1.6M tons, which was near 33% of total exports in 2022. Germany (665K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Japan (341K tons) and Italy (319K tons). All these countries together took approx. 27% share of total exports. The United States (210K tons), South Korea (208K tons), Spain (138K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (136K tons), Turkey (98K tons), France (98K tons), Mexico (88K tons), India (86K tons) and Denmark (77K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain exports, with a CAGR of +14.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, India (+14.0%), Denmark (+8.7%), Turkey (+7.9%), Taiwan (Chinese) (+6.7%), South Korea (+2.7%), Spain (+2.0%) and Italy (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Mexico, Germany, France and the United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Japan (-1.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+21 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the United States, Japan and Germany saw its share reduced by -2.1%, -4.6% and -5.5% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($10.3B), China ($8.6B) and the United States ($6.2B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 45% share of global exports. Japan, Italy, Taiwan (Chinese), India, France, South Korea, Spain, Mexico, Turkey and Denmark lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Among the main exporting countries, India, with a CAGR of +15.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, gearboxes and speed changers (1.6M tons) and cranks and crankshafts (1.5M tons) represented the largest types of transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chainacross the globe, together committing 62% of total exports. Chain; articulated link, roller, of iron or steel (534K tons) held an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by flywheels and pulleys (11%) and bearing housings not incorporating ball or roller bearings, plain shaft bearings (6.8%). The following types - clutches and shaft couplings (211K tons) and iron or steel articulated link chain (180K tons) - each recorded a 7.8% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exported products, was attained by iron or steel articulated link chain (with a CAGR of +9.0%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of exported transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain were gearboxes and speed changers ($22.1B), cranks and crankshafts ($12.4B) and bearing housings not incorporating ball or roller bearings, plain shaft bearings ($7.3B), with a combined 74% share of global exports. Flywheels and pulleys, clutches and shaft couplings, chain; articulated link, roller, of iron or steel, bearing housings incorporating ball or roller bearings and iron or steel articulated link chain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

In terms of the main exported products, iron or steel articulated link chain, with a CAGR of +5.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

The average transmission shaft export price stood at $11,379 per ton in 2022, declining by -1.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a mild contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the average export price increased by 4.9% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $13,448 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was bearing housings not incorporating ball or roller bearings, plain shaft bearings ($21,372 per ton), while the average price for exports of chain; articulated link, roller, of iron or steel ($5,128 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by chain; articulated link, roller, of iron or steel (-0.3%), while the other products experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Export Prices By Country

The average transmission shaft export price stood at $11,379 per ton in 2022, which is down by -1.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a mild decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the average export price increased by 4.9%. The global export price peaked at $13,448 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($29,326 per ton), while China ($5,252 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+4.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform