Cobalt Market

The article provides a detailed analysis of the global cobalt market, showcasing a forecasted upward trend in demand driven by factors such as increasing consumption, production, imports, and exports. Key highlights include a projected CAGR of +5.4% from 2022 to 2030, with market volume expected to reach 855K tons by 2030. China dominates both consumption and import structures, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo leads in production and exports. The article also covers trends in per capita consumption, import prices, and value growth rates over the period from 2012 to 2022, providing valuable insights for stakeholders in the cobalt market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cobalt worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +5.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 855K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cobalt

Global cobalt consumption contracted slightly to 562K tons in 2022, leveling off at 2021 figures. In general, the total consumption indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -29.4% against 2018 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 796K tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global cobalt market size rose notably to $8.9B in 2022, surging by 10% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -7.8% against 2018 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $9.7B. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

China (444K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of cobalt consumption, accounting for 79% of total volume. Moreover, cobalt consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Malaysia (25K tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Finland (15K tons), with a 2.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +15.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Malaysia (+7.7% per year) and Finland (-12.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($5.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Japan ($489M). It was followed by Finland.

In China, the cobalt market expanded at an average annual rate of +20.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Japan (+1.9% per year) and Finland (-15.0% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of cobalt per capita consumption was registered in Finland (2,733 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Belgium (818 kg per 1000 persons), Malaysia (740 kg per 1000 persons) and China (313 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of cobalt was estimated at 71 kg per 1000 persons.

In Finland, cobalt per capita consumption contracted by an average annual rate of -13.1% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Belgium (+35.6% per year) and Malaysia (+6.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Cobalt

In 2022, production of cobalt decreased by -0.5% to 551K tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the production volume increased by 9.7%. Global production peaked at 554K tons in 2021, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

In value terms, cobalt production declined slightly to $11B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 55%. Global production peaked at $12.3B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

Democratic Republic of the Congo (361K tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of cobalt production, comprising approx. 65% of total volume. Moreover, cobalt production in Democratic Republic of the Congo exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (89K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Finland (15K tons), with a 2.7% share.

In Democratic Republic of the Congo, cobalt production increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+11.5% per year) and Finland (+3.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Cobalt

In 2022, the amount of cobalt imported worldwide expanded markedly to 433K tons, with an increase of 14% against the year before. In general, imports posted a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 92%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 538K tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, cobalt imports surged to $8.6B in 2022. Overall, imports continue to indicate a resilient increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 96%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

China dominates imports structure, recording 359K tons, which was approx. 83% of total imports in 2022. Malaysia (15K tons), Belgium (9.7K tons), Japan (7.7K tons), the United States (7.6K tons) and the Netherlands (6.5K tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to cobalt imports into China stood at +15.7%. At the same time, Malaysia (+29.7%) and the Netherlands (+23.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Malaysia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +29.7% from 2012-2022. By contrast, the United States (-2.3%), Japan (-2.7%) and Belgium (-13.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+37 p.p.), Malaysia (+2.9 p.p.) and Belgium (+2.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of the United States (-3.5 p.p.) and Japan (-3.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($6B) constitutes the largest market for imported cobalt worldwide, comprising 69% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Japan ($519M), with a 6% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 5.4% share.

In China, cobalt imports increased at an average annual rate of +28.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Japan (+4.7% per year) and the United States (+4.9% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average cobalt import price amounted to $19,960 per ton, surging by 12% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate prominent growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 66%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($67,303 per ton), while Malaysia ($5,500 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+11.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cobalt

Global cobalt exports reached 423K tons in 2022, with an increase of 14% on the year before. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a prominent expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 85% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, cobalt exports surged to $8.7B in 2022. In general, exports showed a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 128%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Democratic Republic of the Congo prevails in exports structure, reaching 360K tons, which was near 85% of total exports in 2022. The following exporters - Canada (8.8K tons) and Belgium (6.7K tons) - each amounted to a 3.7% share of total exports.

Democratic Republic of the Congo was also the fastest-growing in terms of the cobalt exports, with a CAGR of +10.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Belgium (+5.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Canada experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Democratic Republic of the Congo increased by +13 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Democratic Republic of the Congo ($5.8B) remains the largest cobalt supplier worldwide, comprising 67% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Canada ($589M), with a 6.8% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Democratic Republic of the Congo stood at +26.3%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Canada (+8.8% per year) and Belgium (+7.9% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average cobalt export price stood at $20,622 per ton in 2022, surging by 15% against the previous year. Overall, the export price enjoyed strong growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 28%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($66,636 per ton), while Democratic Republic of the Congo ($16,184 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Democratic Republic of the Congo (+14.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform