Cottonseed Market

The global cottonseed market is expected to see a slight increase in consumption and value terms from 2022 to 2030, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.2% and +2.1% respectively. Key findings include top consuming countries India, China, and the United States, as well as top producing countries like Greece. Import and export trends show significant growth in both volume and value, with Australia leading as the main exporter. Average prices have also seen an increase, with noticeable variations by country of origin.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for cottonseed worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 46M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $54.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cottonseed

Global cottonseed consumption reached 42M tons in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2021 figures. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a mild descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 5.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 49M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global cottonseed market value expanded remarkably to $46.3B in 2022, increasing by 5.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, recorded a abrupt contraction. Global consumption peaked at $77.8B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were India (11M tons), China (10M tons) and the United States (4.3M tons), together accounting for 62% of global consumption. Brazil, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkey and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Greece (with a CAGR of +12.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the consumption figures.

In value terms, China ($29.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Pakistan ($4.3B). It was followed by India.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at -6.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Pakistan (-2.3% per year) and India (-1.3% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of cottonseed per capita consumption in 2022 were Greece (70 kg per person), Uzbekistan (44 kg per person) and Brazil (18 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Greece (with a CAGR of +12.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Cottonseed

In 2022, approx. 42M tons of cottonseed were produced worldwide; picking up by 1.5% on the year before. In general, production, however, recorded a mild contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 5.7%. Global production peaked at 49M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a mild curtailment of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, cottonseed production rose notably to $38.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a abrupt descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 98% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $121.9B. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were India (11M tons), China (9.7M tons) and the United States (4.4M tons), with a combined 60% share of global production. Brazil, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Australia, Turkey and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Greece (with a CAGR of +8.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the production figures.

Imports

World Imports of Cottonseed

In 2022, approx. 1.2M tons of cottonseed were imported worldwide; picking up by 16% compared with the previous year's figure. Overall, imports, however, recorded a slight contraction. Global imports peaked at 1.3M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, cottonseed imports skyrocketed to $482M in 2022. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Global imports peaked at $494M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

China represented the major importer of cottonseed in the world, with the volume of imports accounting for 454K tons, which was near 38% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by South Korea (155K tons), Italy (123K tons) and Japan (107K tons), together generating a 32% share of total imports. The United States (53K tons), Burkina Faso (45K tons), Mali (36K tons), Turkey (36K tons), Spain (34K tons), Mexico (29K tons) and the United Arab Emirates (18K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Turkey (+54.1%), Mali (+13.3%) and the United Arab Emirates (+8.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Turkey emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +54.1% from 2012-2022. Spain, Burkina Faso, South Korea and Japan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Italy (-2.1%), Mexico (-8.1%) and the United States (-8.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of China, Turkey, Mali and South Korea increased by +8.5, +3, +2.2 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($195M) constitutes the largest market for imported cottonseed worldwide, comprising 40% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by South Korea ($56M), with a 12% share of global imports. It was followed by Italy, with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +5.3%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: South Korea (+1.7% per year) and Italy (+0.5% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average cottonseed import price stood at $404 per ton in 2022, picking up by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 30% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($520 per ton), while Burkina Faso ($24 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cottonseed

For the fourth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of cottonseed, which increased by 36% to 1.6M tons in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a slight expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +40.7% against 2017 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, cottonseed exports soared to $573M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports showed a pronounced increase. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Australia represented the main exporting country with an export of around 632K tons, which resulted at 40% of total exports. Greece (248K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 16% share, followed by the United States (14%), Benin (12%) and Cote d'Ivoire (8.7%). Azerbaijan (40K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Australia decreased at an average annual rate of -2.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Benin (+103.5%), Azerbaijan (+34.6%), Cote d'Ivoire (+2.6%), Greece (+2.1%) and the United States (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Benin emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +103.5% from 2012-2022. While the share of Benin (+12 p.p.) and Azerbaijan (+2.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Australia (-16.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Australia ($261M) remains the largest cottonseed supplier worldwide, comprising 45% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Greece ($106M), with an 18% share of global exports. It was followed by the United States, with a 15% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Australia stood at +1.4%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Greece (+4.0% per year) and the United States (+2.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average cottonseed export price stood at $366 per ton in 2022, rising by 13% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 35% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Greece ($426 per ton), while Benin ($149 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Cote d'Ivoire (+5.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform