Fonio Market

The article discusses the projected growth in the global fonio market, with an expected increase in consumption volume and market value over the period from 2022 to 2030. Guinea is highlighted as the largest consuming and producing country, while Senegal and Guinea lead in fonio exports. The article also examines trends in fonio production, global imports, and export prices, providing a comprehensive overview of the fonio market worldwide.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for fonio worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 722K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Fonio

After two years of growth, consumption of fonio decreased by -0.8% to 661K tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 668K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global fonio market size dropped to $974M in 2022, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a temperate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +13.0% against 2019 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $1.3B. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

Guinea (487K tons) remains the largest fonio consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 74% of total volume. Moreover, fonio consumption in Guinea exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Nigeria (84K tons), sixfold. Mali (38K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Guinea amounted to +1.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Nigeria (+0.3% per year) and Mali (+8.1% per year).

In value terms, Guinea ($686M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Nigeria ($128M). It was followed by Cote d'Ivoire.

In Guinea, the fonio market expanded at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Nigeria (+6.7% per year) and Cote d'Ivoire (-0.3% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of fonio per capita consumption was registered in Guinea (35 kg per person), followed by Mali (1.8 kg per person), Cote d'Ivoire (0.7 kg per person) and Nigeria (0.4 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of fonio was estimated at 0.1 kg per person.

In Guinea, fonio per capita consumption decreased by an average annual rate of -1.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Mali (+4.9% per year) and Cote d'Ivoire (-1.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Fonio

After two years of growth, production of fonio decreased by -0.8% to 661K tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 5.9%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume at 668K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a modest increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, fonio production amounted to $1B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, posted a resilient increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 145%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $1.9B. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

Guinea (488K tons) remains the largest fonio producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 74% of total volume. Moreover, fonio production in Guinea exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Nigeria (84K tons), sixfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Mali (38K tons), with a 5.7% share.

In Guinea, fonio production expanded at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Nigeria (+0.3% per year) and Mali (+8.1% per year).

Yield

The global average fonio yield contracted slightly to 747 kg per ha in 2022, remaining stable against 2021. Overall, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 5.2%. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 850 kg per ha. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the average fonio yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global fonio harvested area declined to 885K ha, approximately equating 2021. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to fonio production attained the maximum at 893K ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Fonio

After three years of growth, overseas purchases of fonio decreased by -43.1% to 458 tons in 2022. Over the period under review, imports faced a drastic downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 56% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 3.9K tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, fonio imports reduced notably to $756K in 2022. Overall, imports continue to indicate a abrupt curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 64% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $6.4M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

France (115 tons) and the United States (108 tons) represented roughly 49% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Congo (53 tons), the Netherlands (43 tons), Italy (36 tons) and Poland (28 tons), together committing a 35% share of total imports. The following importers - the UK (11 tons) and Canada (10 tons) - each finished at a 4.6% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +33.5%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fonio importing markets worldwide were the United States ($190K), France ($109K) and the Netherlands ($87K), with a combined 51% share of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +39.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average fonio import price amounted to $1,650 per ton, rising by 30% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 an increase of 68% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $3,181 per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($4,036 per ton), while Poland ($369 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Congo (+8.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Fonio

In 2022, shipments abroad of fonio decreased by -27.4% to 337 tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, exports saw a deep contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 327% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 3.2K tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, fonio exports fell rapidly to $487K in 2022. Over the period under review, exports saw a abrupt decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 115%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $3M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Senegal (95 tons) and Guinea (83 tons) were the largest exporters of fonio in 2022, resulting at approx. 28% and 25% of total exports, respectively. Mali (42 tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Burkina Faso (41 tons), Togo (28 tons) and the Netherlands (22 tons). All these countries together took near 40% share of total exports. The United States (7.3 tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Senegal (with a CAGR of +36.0%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fonio supplying countries worldwide were Guinea ($127K), Senegal ($109K) and Burkina Faso ($52K), with a combined 59% share of global exports.

Senegal, with a CAGR of +40.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average fonio export price stood at $1,444 per ton in 2022, picking up by 14% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a perceptible downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 an increase of 171%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $2,813 per ton in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($3,917 per ton), while Mali ($446 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Togo (+32.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform