Grain Market

The article discusses the projected growth of the global cereal grains market, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.8% from 2022 to 2030. It provides insights into consumption trends, market volume, and value, as well as global production, exports, and imports. Key countries, products, and prices are also analyzed, indicating an overall positive outlook for the industry in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cereal grains worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3,572M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of -0.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $2,766.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cereal Grains

In 2022, the amount of cereal grains consumed worldwide was estimated at 3,089M tons, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The global grain market value stood at $2,800.9B in 2022, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (672M tons), the United States (361M tons) and India (339M tons), together comprising 44% of global consumption. Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Mexico, Pakistan and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 18%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +6.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($732.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Indonesia ($258.7B). It was followed by India.

In China, the grain market remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+1.5% per year) and India (+1.5% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of grain per capita consumption in 2022 were the United States (1,077 kg per person), Russia (707 kg per person) and Vietnam (629 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Consumption By Type

The products with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were maize (1,155M tons), wheat (793M tons) and paddy rice (776M tons), with a combined 89% share of global consumption. Barley, sorghum, millet, oats, other cereals, triticale, rye, buckwheat, fonio, canary seed and quinoa lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 11%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for quinoa (with a CAGR of +6.8%), while consumption for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, paddy rice ($1,004.9B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by maize ($331.4B). It was followed by wheat.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of paddy rice market was relatively modest. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: maize (+1.5% per year) and wheat (+1.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Cereal Grains

In 2022, production of cereal grains decreased by -0.6% to 3,070M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 7.7%. Global production peaked at 3,088M tons in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a mild expansion of the harvested area and modest growth in yield figures.

In value terms, grain production amounted to $2,319B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -0.7% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 72% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level at $2,335.5B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (625M tons), the United States (443M tons) and India (349M tons), together comprising 46% of global production. Russia, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Ukraine, France, Bangladesh, Canada, Australia and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Argentina (with a CAGR of +6.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Type

The products with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were maize (1,164M tons), wheat (808M tons) and paddy rice (776M tons), with a combined 89% share of global production. Barley, sorghum, millet, oats, other cereals, triticale, rye, buckwheat, fonio, canary seed and quinoa lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 11%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key produced products, was attained by quinoa (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while production for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, paddy rice ($1,144.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by maize ($337B). It was followed by wheat.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of paddy rice production amounted to +1.2%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: maize (+0.6% per year) and wheat (+0.5% per year).

Yield

The global average grain yield amounted to 4.1 tons per ha in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the yield increased by 5.4% against the previous year. The global yield peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global harvested area of cereal grains reduced modestly to 740M ha, approximately equating 2021. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 2.2% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 745M ha in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Cereal Grains

In 2022, global imports of cereal grains rose slightly to 471M tons, growing by 3.6% against 2021 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 8% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, grain imports skyrocketed to $165.6B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +92.5% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 32%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (47M tons), followed by Mexico (24M tons) and Japan (22M tons) represented the key importers of cereal grains, together committing 20% of total imports. Algeria (19M tons), Spain (19M tons), Egypt (16M tons), South Korea (16M tons), Italy (15M tons), Vietnam (15M tons), Turkey (14M tons), the Netherlands (13M tons), Iran (12M tons) and Saudi Arabia (12M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +13.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($16.8B), Japan ($8.9B) and Mexico ($7.3B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 20% share of global imports.

China, with a CAGR of +16.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Maize (200M tons) and wheat (171M tons) prevails in imports structure, together generating 88% of total imports. It was distantly followed by barley (29M tons), constituting a 6.9% share of total imports. Sorghum (12M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for quinoa (with a CAGR of +12.7%), while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of imported cereal grains were wheat ($70.1B), maize ($65.8B) and barley ($9.8B), together accounting for 94% of global imports. Sorghum, oats, paddy rice, other cereals, rye, triticale, millet, quinoa, buckwheat, canary seed and fonio lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 5.9%.

Among the main imported products, sorghum, with a CAGR of +10.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

The average grain import price stood at $352 per ton in 2022, rising by 14% against the previous year. Overall, the import price recorded a mild expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 23% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was quinoa ($2,308 per ton), while the price for maize ($329 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by buckwheat (+3.0%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average grain import price amounted to $352 per ton, with an increase of 14% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a modest expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($402 per ton), while Algeria ($243 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+2.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Cereal Grains

In 2022, shipments abroad of cereal grains decreased by -1.4% to 452M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 7.5%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 458M tons in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

In value terms, grain exports skyrocketed to $149.3B in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +88.2% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the United States (86M tons), distantly followed by Argentina (54M tons), Brazil (47M tons), Australia (40M tons), Ukraine (39M tons), France (32M tons), Canada (24M tons) and Russia (23M tons) represented the largest exporters of cereal grains, together achieving 76% of total exports. Romania (13M tons), India (11M tons), Germany (10M tons), Poland (9.7M tons) and Kazakhstan (7.3M tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +12.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($30B) remains the largest grain supplier worldwide, comprising 20% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Argentina ($14.9B), with a 10% share of global exports. It was followed by Brazil, with a 9.1% share.

In the United States, grain exports expanded at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Argentina (+4.9% per year) and Brazil (+8.4% per year).

Exports By Type

Maize (210M tons) and wheat (186M tons) dominates exports structure, together creating 88% of total exports. It was distantly followed by barley (33M tons), constituting a 7.3% share of total exports. Sorghum (11M tons) took a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for quinoa (with a CAGR of +8.0%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of exported cereal grains were wheat ($66.9B), maize ($63.7B) and barley ($10.3B), together comprising 94% of global exports. Sorghum, paddy rice, oats, other cereals, rye, triticale, quinoa, millet, buckwheat, canary seed and fonio lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 5.6%.

Among the main exported products, sorghum, with a CAGR of +10.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average grain export price amounted to $330 per ton, with an increase of 20% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, grain export price increased by +53.3% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 28% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was quinoa ($2,179 per ton), while the average price for exports of maize ($304 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by buckwheat (+4.4%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average grain export price stood at $330 per ton in 2022, increasing by 20% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated slight growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, grain export price increased by +53.3% against 2018 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 28%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($416 per ton), while Ukraine ($237 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (+3.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform