Safflower Seed Market

The global safflower seed market is expected to witness continuous growth from 2022 to 2030, with consumption and production on the rise. Key consuming countries like Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are leading the market, with significant growth rates. Imports and exports are also seeing an increase, with countries like Russia and Turkey being major players in the market. Overall, the market is forecasted to show positive trends in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for safflower seed worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 977K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $592M (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Safflower Seed

Global safflower seed consumption surged to 854K tons in 2022, jumping by 37% on the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 942K tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global safflower seed market size soared to $445M in 2022, picking up by 34% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $468M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Kyrgyzstan (165K tons), Kazakhstan (149K tons) and China (94K tons), with a combined 48% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Kyrgyzstan (with a CAGR of +29.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Kyrgyzstan ($73M), the United States ($70M) and Kazakhstan ($44M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 42% of the global market.

Among the main consuming countries, Kyrgyzstan, with a CAGR of +27.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of safflower seed per capita consumption was registered in Kazakhstan (7,769 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Turkey (889 kg per 1000 persons), Mexico (593 kg per 1000 persons) and Argentina (498 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of safflower seed was estimated at 1.4 kg per 1000 persons.

In Kazakhstan, safflower seed per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (+13.2% per year) and Mexico (-3.0% per year).

Production

World Production of Safflower Seed

Global safflower seed production skyrocketed to 843K tons in 2022, picking up by 33% on 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global production peaked at 949K tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by measured growth of the harvested area and a resilient increase in yield figures.

In value terms, safflower seed production rose slightly to $361M in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a slight shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 25%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $498M. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Russia (283K tons), Kazakhstan (220K tons) and Mexico (78K tons), together accounting for 69% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +44.7%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2022, the global average yield of safflower seed skyrocketed to 1.1 tons per ha, picking up by 27% against 2021. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, the yield attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global safflower seed harvested area expanded to 762K ha, increasing by 4.8% on the previous year's figure. Overall, the harvested area, however, recorded a pronounced descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 1.2M ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Safflower Seed

In 2022, supplies from abroad of safflower seed increased by 166% to 362K tons, rising for the third year in a row after three years of decline. Over the period under review, imports posted a significant increase. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, safflower seed imports soared to $114M in 2022. Overall, imports posted a significant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 119% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

Kyrgyzstan represented the largest importer of safflower seed in the world, with the volume of imports recording 154K tons, which was approx. 43% of total imports in 2022. Turkey (62K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by China (61K tons). All these countries together held near 34% share of total imports. The following importers - the United States (12K tons), Belgium (11K tons), Uzbekistan (8K tons), Kazakhstan (7.2K tons), Iraq (6.6K tons), Poland (5.6K tons) and the Philippines (5.5K tons) - together made up 15% of total imports.

Kyrgyzstan was also the fastest-growing in terms of the safflower seed imports, with a CAGR of +186.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Kazakhstan (+45.3%), the United States (+28.9%), China (+23.1%), Iraq (+21.2%), Uzbekistan (+19.9%), Turkey (+19.4%), Poland (+16.6%), the Philippines (+12.3%) and Belgium (+11.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. While the share of Kyrgyzstan (+43 p.p.), Turkey (+17 p.p.), China (+17 p.p.) and Uzbekistan (+2.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Iraq (-2.6 p.p.), Poland (-3.9 p.p.), the Philippines (-6.3 p.p.) and Belgium (-14.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest safflower seed importing markets worldwide were Turkey ($31M), China ($26M) and the United States ($10M), together accounting for 59% of global imports. Belgium, Kyrgyzstan, the Philippines, Poland, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

Among the main importing countries, Kyrgyzstan, with a CAGR of +101.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average safflower seed import price amounted to $315 per ton, declining by -38.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a abrupt setback. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the average import price increased by 35%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $655 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($849 per ton), while Kyrgyzstan ($40 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+13.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Safflower Seed

In 2022, overseas shipments of safflower seed increased by 142% to 351K tons, rising for the third year in a row after three years of decline. In general, exports enjoyed a significant increase. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, safflower seed exports skyrocketed to $105M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports posted buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 42%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

Russia represented the largest exporting country with an export of around 251K tons, which accounted for 72% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Kazakhstan (78K tons), comprising a 22% share of total exports. Turkey (7.6K tons) held a minor share of total exports.

Russia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the safflower seed exports, with a CAGR of +56.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Turkey (+43.6%) and Kazakhstan (+31.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey increased by +64, +8.8 and +1.6 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($59M) remains the largest safflower seed supplier worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Kazakhstan ($26M), with a 25% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Russia stood at +43.1%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Kazakhstan (+36.0% per year) and Turkey (+38.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average safflower seed export price amounted to $298 per ton, with a decrease of -42.6% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a abrupt decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when the average export price increased by 46%. The global export price peaked at $576 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Turkey ($446 per ton), while Russia ($234 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform