Yoghurt and Fermented Milk Market

The global yoghurt and fermented milk market is projected to experience growth over the next eight years, with an anticipated increase in consumption and market value. Despite a slight decline in consumption in 2022, the market is expected to rebound and show positive trends in the coming years. The United States leads in both consumption and production, with other key players including Japan, Indonesia, and Turkey. Import and export trends also show modest growth, with notable increases in countries like Greece and Oman. Overall, the market is set to see gradual growth and stability in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for yoghurt and fermented milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 62M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $93.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Yoghurt and Fermented Milk

In 2022, approx. 49M tons of yoghurt and fermented milk were consumed worldwide; which is down by -5.6% compared with the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 53M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global yoghurt and fermented milk market value shrank to $59.9B in 2022, waning by -5.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $67.9B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of yoghurt and fermented milk consumption was the United States (8.3M tons), accounting for 17% of total volume. Moreover, yoghurt and fermented milk consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Indonesia (3.6M tons), twofold. Japan (3.5M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.2% share.

In the United States, yoghurt and fermented milk consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+3.2% per year) and Japan (+0.7% per year).

In value terms, Japan ($22.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Turkey ($9.6B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Japan stood at +1.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkey (+3.1% per year) and the United States (+1.2% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of yoghurt and fermented milk per capita consumption in 2022 were Japan (28 kg per person), Canada (28 kg per person) and France (25 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Pakistan (with a CAGR of +3.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Yoghurt and Fermented Milk

In 2022, the amount of yoghurt and fermented milk produced worldwide shrank to 49M tons, which is down by -5.3% compared with the previous year's figure. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the production volume increased by 7.3%. Global production peaked at 53M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by modest growth of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, yoghurt and fermented milk production dropped to $50.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $86.3B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The United States (8.3M tons) remains the largest yoghurt and fermented milk producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 17% of total volume. Moreover, yoghurt and fermented milk production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Indonesia (3.6M tons), twofold. Japan (3.5M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in the United States was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (+3.2% per year) and Japan (+0.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Yoghurt and Fermented Milk

In 2022, the amount of yoghurt and fermented milk imported worldwide reduced to 3.1M tons, which is down by -3.5% compared with 2021. In general, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 7.6%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 3.3M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, yoghurt and fermented milk imports rose modestly to $5.2B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 13%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the twelve major importers of yoghurt and fermented milk, namely the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, France, the Philippines, Ireland, Iraq and Sweden, represented more than half of total import. Oman (74K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Oman (with a CAGR of +14.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Italy ($499M), the UK ($492M) and the Netherlands ($346M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 26% of global imports. Spain, Germany, Belgium, Portugal, the Philippines, France, Sweden, Ireland, Oman and Iraq lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

Oman, with a CAGR of +13.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average yoghurt and fermented milk import price amounted to $1,657 per ton, surging by 5.3% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the average import price increased by 8.2%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $1,781 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,857 per ton), while Iraq ($512 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+2.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Yoghurt and Fermented Milk

For the fifth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of yoghurt and fermented milk, which increased by 0.3% to 3.3M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 4.1% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, yoghurt and fermented milk exports expanded slightly to $5.2B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 9.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Germany (600K tons), distantly followed by France (326K tons), Belgium (281K tons), Iran (183K tons), Spain (179K tons) and Austria (156K tons) represented the key exporters of yoghurt and fermented milk, together committing 52% of total exports. Poland (131K tons), Thailand (127K tons), Saudi Arabia (116K tons), Greece (116K tons), Belarus (103K tons), the Netherlands (90K tons) and the Czech Republic (61K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Greece (with a CAGR of +14.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest yoghurt and fermented milk supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($1B), France ($586M) and Belgium ($359M), together accounting for 38% of global exports. Greece, Spain, Austria, Poland, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, Belarus, Thailand, Iran and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Greece, with a CAGR of +12.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average yoghurt and fermented milk export price amounted to $1,577 per ton, picking up by 3.8% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 11% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $1,639 per ton in 2014; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Greece ($2,397 per ton), while Iran ($515 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+1.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform