Fresh Bread and Miscellaneous Bakery Market

The global market for fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery products is projected to continue growing over the next eight years, driven by increasing demand worldwide. In 2022, there was a slight decrease in consumption for the first time since 2011, but the overall trend has shown consistent growth. China leads in both consumption and production, with the United States and Pakistan following behind. The United States is the largest importer and exporter of these products, with Canada and Germany also playing significant roles. Average prices for imports and exports have been increasing, indicating a growing market value. Overall, the market is expected to see gradual growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 256M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $818.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Fresh Bread and Miscellaneous Bakery

In 2022, consumption of fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery decreased by -0.6% to 223M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 225M tons in 2021, and then declined slightly in the following year.

The value of the market for fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery worldwide reduced slightly to $612.5B in 2022, with a decrease of -2.3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 5.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $626.7B in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (44M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery consumption, comprising approx. 20% of total volume. Moreover, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (15M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Pakistan (11M tons), with a 5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +3.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+2.6% per year) and Pakistan (+1.9% per year).

In value terms, China ($139.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($46.1B). It was followed by Indonesia.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at +3.5%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+2.8% per year) and Indonesia (+0.5% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (74 kg per person), the UK (73 kg per person) and Bangladesh (50 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +3.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Fresh Bread and Miscellaneous Bakery

After ten years of growth, production of fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery decreased by -0.7% to 223M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 4%. Global production peaked at 224M tons in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

In value terms, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery production dropped to $615B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 8.8%. Global production peaked at $657.9B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery production was China (45M tons), accounting for 20% of total volume. Moreover, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (14M tons), threefold. Pakistan (11M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +3.7%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (+2.0% per year) and Pakistan (+1.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Fresh Bread and Miscellaneous Bakery

In 2022, global fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery imports stood at 9.7M tons, growing by 6.7% compared with 2021. In general, total imports indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +70.1% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 9.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery imports expanded remarkably to $30.6B in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +70.1% against 2015 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 16%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (1.5M tons), distantly followed by the UK (794K tons), Germany (746K tons), the Netherlands (620K tons) and France (579K tons) were the main importers of fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery, together generating 44% of total imports. The following importers - Belgium (387K tons), Canada (385K tons), Italy (250K tons), Spain (234K tons), Austria (206K tons), Poland (163K tons), the Czech Republic (156K tons) and Australia (152K tons) - together made up 20% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +10.4%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($6.2B) constitutes the largest market for imported fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery worldwide, comprising 20% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by the UK ($2.6B), with an 8.5% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 6.9% share.

In the United States, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery imports increased at an average annual rate of +12.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the UK (+4.7% per year) and Germany (+5.6% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average import price for fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery stood at $3,163 per ton in 2022, picking up by 4.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 6.1%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($4,744 per ton), while the Netherlands ($2,005 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Australia (+4.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Fresh Bread and Miscellaneous Bakery

In 2022, approx. 9.5M tons of fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery were exported worldwide; picking up by 4.6% against 2021. Overall, total exports indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +69.9% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery exports rose markedly to $30.5B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +78.4% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 18%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Germany (1.3M tons), followed by France (764K tons), Canada (713K tons), Belgium (617K tons), the United States (593K tons), Italy (525K tons), Poland (512K tons), the Netherlands (461K tons) and Spain (437K tons) were the largest exporters of fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery, together mixing up 62% of total exports. The following exporters - Mexico (382K tons), Turkey (215K tons), the UK (201K tons) and Malaysia (197K tons) - together made up 11% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +13.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Canada ($3.4B), Germany ($3.3B) and France ($2.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 30% of global exports.

Canada, with a CAGR of +14.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for fresh bread and miscellaneous bakery stood at $3,229 per ton in 2022, growing by 4.9% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 6.2%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($4,733 per ton), while Turkey ($2,435 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform