Mustard Seed Market

The global mustard seed market is projected to see continued growth in consumption, with market performance forecasted to expand at a steady pace. From 2022 to 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 1.1M tons while the market value is projected to reach $1.3B. Leading consuming countries include Nepal, Malaysia, and Russia, with Nepal showing the highest per capita consumption. Production and exports are on the rise, with Canada and India emerging as major exporters of mustard seed. Import prices are also on the rise, indicating potential for growth in the immediate term.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for mustard seed worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.1M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Mustard Seed

In 2022, the amount of mustard seed consumed worldwide expanded rapidly to 997K tons, with an increase of 9.9% on 2021. In general, the total consumption indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +27.9% against 2016 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

The global mustard seed market revenue soared to $950M in 2022, picking up by 20% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +80.0% against 2015 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Nepal (264K tons), Malaysia (145K tons) and Russia (136K tons), together accounting for 55% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +87.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest mustard seed markets worldwide were Malaysia ($176M), Nepal ($170M) and the United States ($105M), together comprising 47% of the global market.

Malaysia, with a CAGR of +93.1%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of mustard seed per capita consumption was registered in Nepal (8.8 kg per person), followed by Malaysia (4.4 kg per person), Canada (2.2 kg per person) and Russia (0.9 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of mustard seed was estimated at 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the mustard seed per capita consumption in Nepal stood at +2.7%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Malaysia (+85.2% per year) and Canada (+32.7% per year).

Production

World Production of Mustard Seed

For the fifth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in production of mustard seed, which increased by 11% to 1M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, the total production indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +85.4% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 23%. Global production peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a prominent increase of the harvested area and noticeable growth in yield figures.

In value terms, mustard seed production expanded modestly to $739M in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -1.5% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 38%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level at $750M in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Nepal (230K tons), Russia (183K tons) and Canada (162K tons), together comprising 57% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +16.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average mustard seed yield contracted to 1.1 tons per ha in 2022, which is down by -14.8% against 2021 figures. Overall, the yield indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the yield increased by 44% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average mustard seed yield hit record highs at 1.3 tons per ha in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global harvested area of mustard seed soared to 890K ha, growing by 30% compared with the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 31%. The global harvested area peaked at 891K ha in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Mustard Seed

In 2022, the amount of mustard seed imported worldwide was estimated at 323K tons, remaining relatively unchanged against 2021 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 11%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at 338K tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, mustard seed imports skyrocketed to $469M in 2022. In general, imports continue to indicate a buoyant expansion. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The United States (55K tons) and Germany (53K tons) represented the largest importers of mustard seed in 2022, resulting at approx. 17% and 17% of total imports, respectively. Nepal (34K tons) held an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by France (10%), Poland (8.2%), Bangladesh (5.2%) and Belgium (4.9%). The following importers - the Netherlands (11K tons) and Canada (10K tons) - each amounted to a 6.5% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Canada (with a CAGR of +31.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest mustard seed importing markets worldwide were the United States ($96M), Germany ($80M) and France ($47M), with a combined 47% share of global imports. Poland, Nepal, Belgium, the Netherlands, Canada and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

Among the main importing countries, Canada, with a CAGR of +38.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average mustard seed import price amounted to $1,451 per ton, rising by 56% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, mustard seed import price increased by +94.6% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1,726 per ton), while Bangladesh ($817 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+7.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Mustard Seed

In 2022, approx. 342K tons of mustard seed were exported worldwide; increasing by 3.4% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 9.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, mustard seed exports surged to $481M in 2022. In general, exports showed a strong increase. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Canada (86K tons), distantly followed by India (55K tons), Russia (48K tons), Germany (27K tons) and the United States (21K tons) were the largest exporters of mustard seed, together committing 69% of total exports. The Czech Republic (14K tons), Poland (14K tons), Australia (13K tons), Belgium (13K tons), Ukraine (12K tons), Argentina (7.3K tons) and Kazakhstan (5.9K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Argentina (with a CAGR of +210.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Canada ($152M) remains the largest mustard seed supplier worldwide, comprising 32% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Russia ($67M), with a 14% share of global exports. It was followed by India, with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Canada stood at +4.1%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Russia (+13.0% per year) and India (+12.4% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average mustard seed export price stood at $1,405 per ton in 2022, growing by 52% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, mustard seed export price increased by +89.6% against 2020 indices. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Poland ($1,814 per ton), while the United States ($630 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ukraine (+9.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform